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Why is this correct?

Posted By: Grant HOffman
Date: Monday, 16 December 2013, at 7:12 p.m.

This came form the Monte Carlo World champs this year and I do not understand why 5/2 is not the better play





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 164
25 point match
pip: 58
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bF-BCaa--ab-------bbbbA--:1:-1:1:21:5:4:0:25:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout15/3 4/3eq: -0.954
Player:
Opponent:
20.20% (G:9.68% B:1.00%)
79.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.015 (-0.969...-0.939) - [91.5%]
Duration: 5 minutes 51 seconds
2.Rollout15/2eq: -0.968 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
19.75% (G:10.26% B:1.16%)
80.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.013 (-0.980...-0.955) - [8.5%]
Duration: 5 minutes 32 seconds
3.XG Roller++4/3 4/2eq: -1.000 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
18.30% (G:8.72% B:0.65%)
81.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++5/4 5/3eq: -1.000 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
16.98% (G:6.41% B:0.51%)
83.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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