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got it wrong, like I always do

Posted By: Bill Calton
Date: Friday, 27 December 2013, at 2:06 p.m.

In Response To: got it wrong, like I always do (Stick)

A Fearful superficial analysis. Was thinking something like this:

Once opponent comes in I'm screwed. I need a one and a six before he comes in for that to happen - seems unlikely. Also, my aces leave a blot. Not good. Drop.

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I played this out twenty times taking the strong side after the premature double.

11 Wins 1 Gammon Win

3 Losses 5 Gammon Losses

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Some observations:

I am really sweating when he rolls that immediate ace. I am shooting at a blot, but so is he, and I need to play this game to completion.

I made plenty of checker misplays along the way too. When do I leave the end of the prime slotted? When do I lift? When do I hit loose?

Even when things went well (opponent cracks right away and I come in and he is stuck on the ace point) I still lost sometimes. It wasn't a lock to roll that position home.

Ever the pessimist, as the weaker side facing the cube, I saw the negatives... I crack, leave a blot, get hit, get closed out and gammoned. Pretty unlikely - in fact that happened only one time in my mini-rollout. On the other hand, I didn't see the weaker sides gammon wins. Especially with that blot at the end of the 5-prime you can easily have two men up on the bar. In fact this happened to me five times in my mini-rollout (probably skewed but still!)

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I was hoping to learn something by posting large errors as opposed to the close decisions I usually see here.

Messages In This Thread

• got it wrong, like I always do
  Bill Calton -- Thursday, 26 December 2013, at 11:46 p.m.
  • got it wrong, like I always do
    Stick -- Friday, 27 December 2013, at 1:59 a.m.
    • got it wrong, like I always do
      Fatboy -- Friday, 27 December 2013, at 8:22 a.m.
    • got it wrong, like I always do
      Bill Calton -- Friday, 27 December 2013, at 2:06 p.m.
      • got it wrong, like I always do
        Mochy -- Friday, 27 December 2013, at 2:42 p.m.
  • No Jacoby, No Beavers — XGR++ Evals
    Taper_Mike -- Friday, 27 December 2013, at 2:40 p.m.