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Block, Attack, or Run?
After coming in from the bar, the big decision is whether to lift the anchor or not. If we do, then can play the final 5 either by running out the 15pt or by adding a spare to the 8pt. Between the two, I prefer the 8pt. We leave a double shot either way, but if we are hit on the 15pt, the only return shots will be fly shots. In addition, a spare on the 8pt is a structural improvement that we get to keep whether we are hit on the 20pt or not. Lastly, we lose less ground in the race if we are hit on the 20pt.
If we decide to keep the anchor, then we can enter and use the next two 5s to make a point. No matter what point we make, that will leave one more 5 to play, and the only reasonable choice for it will be to run to the outfield, 20/15. With that much understood, we can decide which point to make. The 1pt and 3pt are both available.
Between the two, I prefer the latter. Either point can serve us in an attack, but in a block, the 3pt is decidedly superior.
By a process of elimination, the final choice is S (Split) = bar/20*, 18/13, 18/8 or C (Cross) = bar/20*/15, 8/3(2). With only intuition and a 23-pip racing advantage as my guides, I chose the former.
S (Split) = bar/20*, 18/13, 18/8
Mike