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62S-52X-55M-21-54 — No Jacoby, No Beavers — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Friday, 31 January 2014, at 8:11 a.m.

In Response To: Are we having fun yet? (Taper_Mike)

With so many blots scattered about, making the 20pt is a good defense against whatever the storm will bring. That’s why the top three plays all include it. After that decision, it is a relatively straightforward choice not to create another blot on the 9pt or to walk into a double shot with 11/7. Over the board, I made the anchor and hit, 6/2*, but that’s an overreach. There are only 8 checkers in the zone, so the chances of completing a blitz are small. This attack was already low on fuel when I tried the double hit on the third roll.

The best move is the simple running play R = bar/20 18/14. Advancing the blot on the 18pt cuts down on shots and provides some coverage for the other blots in the outer board.

Mike

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 161 Unlimited Game pip: 164 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaB--D-A--AeD---cAdA---aA:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 54

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20 18/14	eq: +0.1812
	Player: Opponent: 53.87% (G:15.69% B:0.67%) 46.13% (G:11.07% B:0.35%) Conf.: ±0.0078 (+0.1734...+0.1890) - [100.0%] Duration: 42 minutes 14 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20 13/9	eq: +0.1173 (-0.0639)
	Player: Opponent: 52.45% (G:16.40% B:0.78%) 47.55% (G:13.13% B:0.42%) Conf.: ±0.0090 (+0.1083...+0.1263) - [0.0%] Duration: 41 minutes 12 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/20 6/2*	eq: +0.1139 (-0.0673)
	Player: Opponent: 52.42% (G:15.77% B:0.76%) 47.58% (G:13.04% B:0.44%) Conf.: ±0.0090 (+0.1049...+0.1229) - [0.0%] Duration: 43 minutes 08 seconds
4.	Rollout1	Bar/21 13/8	eq: +0.1007 (-0.0805)
	Player: Opponent: 52.47% (G:16.58% B:0.84%) 47.53% (G:14.84% B:0.70%) Conf.: ±0.0083 (+0.0923...+0.1090) - [0.0%] Duration: 36 minutes 42 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 84684514 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike 2014-Jan-29 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 62S-52X-55M-21-54-n-tm.xgp n[R S64 H67 Z80] "<=5 n[R S62 H72 Z78] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

62S-52X-55M-21-54 — Unlimited Games

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 1.02 2-ply Trunc	729905281	+174.796	n[R S53 H66] '/0.360t	Taper_Mike
GnuBg 1.02 2-ply Trunc	734312753	+177.483	n[R S57 H69 Z80 B95] '/0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	+174.5	n[R S62 H72 Z78] "&e	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	84684514	+181.2	n[R S64 H67 Z80] "<=5	Taper_Mike (above)

Key: B = Both [bar/20, 11/7], H = Hit [bar/20, 6/2*], R = Run [bar/20, 18/14], S = Split [bar/20, 13/9], Z = Reverse split [bar/21, 13/8]

Nactation Tutorial • Explanation of nacbracs

---

Third Roll 62S-52X-55

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 160 Unlimited Game pip: 160 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-a--E-C--AeD---cAd----aA:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 55

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20 13/3* 8/3	eq: +0.5582
	Player: Opponent: 62.24% (G:21.84% B:1.34%) 37.76% (G:9.39% B:0.35%) Conf.: ±0.0036 (+0.5546...+0.5619) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 hours 19 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20 8/3*(2) 6/1*	eq: +0.5402 (-0.0180)
	Player: Opponent: 60.90% (G:25.78% B:0.79%) 39.10% (G:10.35% B:0.48%) Conf.: ±0.0031 (+0.5371...+0.5433) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes
3.	Rollout2	Bar/20 18/13 8/3*(2)	eq: +0.5345 (-0.0237)
	Player: Opponent: 62.10% (G:20.30% B:1.17%) 37.90% (G:9.24% B:0.31%) Conf.: ±0.0041 (+0.5304...+0.5386) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
4.	Rollout3	Bar/20 8/3* 6/1*(2)	eq: +0.5282 (-0.0300)
	Player: Opponent: 60.57% (G:25.69% B:0.58%) 39.43% (G:10.23% B:0.44%) Conf.: ±0.0053 (+0.5229...+0.5335) - [0.0%] Duration: 52 minutes 53 seconds
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45531277 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45531277 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45531277 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike 2014-Jan-07 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 62S-52X-55-n-tm.xgp n[M̲ M18 C24 Y30] "<=31*15 10 n[M̲ C20 M21 Y41] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

62S-52X-55 — Unlimited Games

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 1.02 2-ply Trunc	729905281	+557.231	n[M̲ M22 C26 Y45] '/0.360t	Taper_Mike
GnuBg 1.02 2-ply Trunc	734773246	+556.378	n[M̲ C23 M25 Y46 S58 E73] '/0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	+555.6	n[M̲ C20 M21 Y41] "&e	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	45531277	+558.2	n[M̲ M18 C24 Y30] "<=31*15 10	Taper_Mike (above)

Key: C = Cross [bar/20, 18/13, 8/3*(2)], M = Tri-areal doublet [bar/20, 8/3*(2), 6/1*], M̲ = Tri-areal doublet [bar/20, 13/3*, 8/3], Y = Tri-areal doublet [bar/20, 8/3*, 6/1*(2)]

Nactation Tutorial • Explanation of nacbracs

Messages In This Thread

• Are we having fun yet?
  Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 29 January 2014, at 7:15 p.m.
  • Are we having fun yet?
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 30 January 2014, at 6:54 p.m.
    • Are we having fun yet?
      Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 31 January 2014, at 12:04 a.m.
  • 62S-52X-55M-21-54 — No Jacoby, No Beavers — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
    Taper_Mike -- Friday, 31 January 2014, at 8:11 a.m.