
BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20140130
Posted By: HOMINID
Date: Friday, 31 January 2014, at 11:05 a.m.
In Response To: OLM 20140130 (Jason Lee)
In every BG play there is a problem. The problem here are the runners on the 18 point. Is this a good time to run? Its all about the odds . Every play is always about the odds of an event occurring. The trouble is most human brains fall into a tarry pit attempting the arithmetical gymnastic required. Thats not the case here. We need to know what the odds are of being hit should XG enter, if we run to the 9 point. Every BG player knows the odds of XG entering is 56% , ok every serious player. The hitting rolls for XG using the 21 roll base system are
61, 62, 22, 21, 11 , multiply the rolls by 5 to give a % = 25%. In that the chance of not being hit are very much in our favour the moment is ripe. The beauty of this play is that there are no blots in our outfield. Often if one gets unlucky and there are 2 blots nasty things can happen.
18/9 QED

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