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Advanced Backgammon #41
Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Thursday, 6 February 2014, at 12:50 p.m.
In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #41 (HOMINID)
POSITION: You can estimate the value of these types of positions by considering the "Most Common Variation" (MCV). For instance, Blue's strongest variation is priming while, White's is racing. Blue can extend his prime from the front or the back with 64 62 42 53 41 55 44 22, 13/36 36%. White can prepare to escape with any ace or attempt to escape immediately with 52 62, 15/36 41.6%. The estimated value is therefore: 23/36*21/36 = 37.3+36, 73.3%.
RACE: Subtract 8 pips from Blue's PC and put White on roll 125134 and most formula's in a straight race will be in the 71% ball park. XG's output is an estimated 71.3%. Using MCV, you'll be able to work out what the race is worth to White. Her best chances of winning the race comes from when Blue fails to extend his prime and White rolls one of her 15 good rolls. Therefore, 15/36*23/36*71%, 19%*(10073.3) = 5%. The estimated value of the position is 73.3%5% = 68.3%  31.7%
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 125Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 142
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=aBCBCAbBbbeBab:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
NBM

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