This is a fifty-fifty double decision.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 125 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 142 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=--a--BCBC-A-bBb---beBab---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
Player Winning Chances: | 68.24% (G:16.09% B:0.54%) | 68.26% (G:17.34% B:0.61%) |
Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.76% (G:6.05% B:0.19%) | 31.74% (G:6.17% B:0.21%) |
Cubeless Equities | +0.469 | +0.962 |
Cubeful Equities |
No double: | +0.726 | ±0.002 (+0.724..+0.728) |
Double/Take: | +0.726 (0.000) | ±0.003 (+0.723..+0.729) |
Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.274) |
|
Best Cube action: No double / Take |
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.0% |
Rollout details |
46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 401243 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
Double Decision confidence: | 52.2% |
Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Duration: 6 hours 01 minute |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Now some variants:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 125 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 141 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=--a--BCBCA--bBb---beBab---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
Player Winning Chances: | 69.75% (G:16.30% B:0.53%) | 69.99% (G:17.08% B:0.63%) |
Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.25% (G:5.86% B:0.18%) | 30.01% (G:6.00% B:0.21%) |
Cubeless Equities | +0.503 | +1.029 |
Cubeful Equities |
No double: | +0.784 (-0.026) | ±0.007 (+0.777..+0.790) |
Double/Take: | +0.810 | ±0.009 (+0.801..+0.819) |
Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.190) |
|
Best Cube action: Double / Take |
Rollout details |
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 401243 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Duration: 21 minutes 00 second |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 123 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 142 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=--a--BCBC-A-bBb---bdBbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
Player Winning Chances: | 64.76% (G:13.36% B:0.40%) | 65.07% (G:13.79% B:0.43%) |
Opponent Winning Chances: | 35.24% (G:6.55% B:0.18%) | 34.93% (G:6.40% B:0.21%) |
Cubeless Equities | +0.366 | +0.755 |
Cubeful Equities |
No double: | +0.569 | ±0.012 (+0.557..+0.581) |
Double/Take: | +0.491 (-0.078) | ±0.015 (+0.475..+0.506) |
Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.431) |
|
Best Cube action: No double / Take |
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.3% |
Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13905256 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Duration: 5 minutes 33 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 123 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 141 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=--a--BCBCA--bBb---bdBbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
Player Winning Chances: | 65.87% (G:13.69% B:0.38%) | 66.11% (G:14.54% B:0.43%) |
Opponent Winning Chances: | 34.13% (G:6.52% B:0.17%) | 33.89% (G:6.67% B:0.19%) |
Cubeless Equities | +0.391 | +0.807 |
Cubeful Equities |
No double: | +0.615 | ±0.012 (+0.603..+0.627) |
Double/Take: | +0.555 (-0.059) | ±0.016 (+0.539..+0.572) |
Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.385) |
|
Best Cube action: No double / Take |
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.8% |
Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13905256 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Duration: 5 minutes 30 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Finally, a variant Nack mentioned. Switching white's three point to the two point is sufficient to warrant a double.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 123 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 142 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=--a--BCBC-A-bBb---beBa-b--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
Player Winning Chances: | 69.08% (G:16.34% B:0.55%) | 69.29% (G:17.49% B:0.62%) |
Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.92% (G:5.76% B:0.16%) | 30.71% (G:5.94% B:0.18%) |
Cubeless Equities | +0.491 | +1.011 |
Cubeful Equities |
No double: | +0.752 (-0.029) | ±0.008 (+0.744..+0.760) |
Double/Take: | +0.781 | ±0.011 (+0.770..+0.793) |
Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.219) |
|
Best Cube action: Double / Take |
Rollout details |
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 67781547 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Duration: 10 minutes 17 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10