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Advanced Backgammon #41 -- Rollouts

Posted By: Igor
Date: Tuesday, 11 February 2014, at 12:05 a.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #41 (Igor)

This is a fifty-fifty double decision.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 125
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a--BCBC-A-bBb---beBab---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.24% (G:16.09% B:0.54%) 68.26% (G:17.34% B:0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.76% (G:6.05% B:0.19%) 31.74% (G:6.17% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities +0.469 +0.962
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.7260.002 (+0.724..+0.728)
Double/Take:+0.726 (0.000)0.003 (+0.723..+0.729)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.274)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.0%
Rollout details
46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 401243
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:52.2%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 hours 01 minute

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Now some variants:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 125
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 141
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a--BCBCA--bBb---beBab---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.75% (G:16.30% B:0.53%) 69.99% (G:17.08% B:0.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.25% (G:5.86% B:0.18%) 30.01% (G:6.00% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities +0.503 +1.029
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.784 (-0.026)0.007 (+0.777..+0.790)
Double/Take:+0.8100.009 (+0.801..+0.819)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.190)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 401243
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 21 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a--BCBC-A-bBb---bdBbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.76% (G:13.36% B:0.40%) 65.07% (G:13.79% B:0.43%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.24% (G:6.55% B:0.18%) 34.93% (G:6.40% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities +0.366 +0.755
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.5690.012 (+0.557..+0.581)
Double/Take:+0.491 (-0.078)0.015 (+0.475..+0.506)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.431)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13905256
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 33 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 141
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a--BCBCA--bBb---bdBbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.87% (G:13.69% B:0.38%) 66.11% (G:14.54% B:0.43%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.13% (G:6.52% B:0.17%) 33.89% (G:6.67% B:0.19%)
Cubeless Equities +0.391 +0.807
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6150.012 (+0.603..+0.627)
Double/Take:+0.555 (-0.059)0.016 (+0.539..+0.572)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.385)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13905256
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 30 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Finally, a variant Nack mentioned. Switching white's three point to the two point is sufficient to warrant a double.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a--BCBC-A-bBb---beBa-b--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.08% (G:16.34% B:0.55%) 69.29% (G:17.49% B:0.62%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.92% (G:5.76% B:0.16%) 30.71% (G:5.94% B:0.18%)
Cubeless Equities +0.491 +1.011
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.752 (-0.029)0.008 (+0.744..+0.760)
Double/Take:+0.7810.011 (+0.770..+0.793)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.219)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67781547
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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