                      |
| ||||
| XGID=-aDBBB--a----------a---ci-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 31 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 4/1* 2/1 | eq: +1.2756 | |||
| ||||||
| 2. | Rollout1 | 4/1* 1/Off | eq: +1.2284 (-0.0472) | |||
| ||||||
| 3. | Rollout1 | 3/2 3/Off | eq: +1.1938 (-0.0818) | |||
| ||||||
| 4. | Rollout1 | 4/3 4/1* | eq: +1.1684 (-0.1072) | |||
| ||||||
| 5. | Rollout1 | 5/4 5/2 | eq: +1.1568 (-0.1189) | |||
| ||||||
| 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 32842496 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
Rollout by Taper_Mike |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
My Whopper Was Third-best
Over the board, I got scared by the cleanup. I realized that the gammon was going to be close. Generally that means it is worth taking a risk to speed up the bear off. The problem for me was not in leaving a shot. I was OK with that. What bothered me was the potential to leave a series of shots.
Eventually I convinced myself that volunteering a shot caused more harm than good, and that the best way to win a gammon was not to be hit. I played 3/2, 3/off. By offerring a gap, I could bear off one checker.
What I missed was that getting hit will sometimes increase the rate at which gammons are won, because you might pick up extra checker or two on your way back around the board.
I suspect an even larger benefit of making 1pt comes 16 times in 36 when the opponent fans. Then you pick up a full turn in the race to win a gammon. And when he does enter, he may be out of your hair for good.
Mike