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Rollout Results Posted, Brief Commentary
Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 23 February 2014, at 5:42 p.m.
In Response To: 61P61P62R51$21 (Paul Weaver)
The left position and its rollout results were posted here a few days ago. The right position was posted yesterday. Blue has a 62 to play on the left and a 21 to play on the right, so how could they possibly be related?
These two positions have the following in common: (1) Blue has the option in both to play a checker to the 13pt while keeping a blot on the 24pt. This is the "beginners' play," and I confess to being guilty of making this move in both instances. (2) Blue has the option in both to end up with blots on the 22pt and 15pt. (3) The best play in both is to end up with blots on the 21pt and 16pt.
Here is what Nack wrote:
"White's impending prime increases Blue's incentive to immediately make a bid to escape with his last back checker. I think that compels 24/22 with the deuce.
I'd go ahead and maximize escape potential by stepping up the ace as well, by playing U (Up, 24/21). Most of White's hitandcover numbers are duplicated. I was tempted, though, by other aces, as w (wild, 24/22 6/5) and R (Run, 24/22 16/15) also have duplications.
If White's 7pt were not yet made and/or her 5pt not yet slotted, a stronger case could be made for the 4duping $ (Slot, 13/11 6/5), and R (Run, 16/13) would be in the "running," as might the 3duping S (Split, 16/15 13/11). It would depend on the exact position; no doubt there are interesting variants.
P (Point, 7/5 6/5) diversifies the opponent's 6s and I'd therefore eliminate it in a direct comparison with $."
White is NevzatDogan
score: 0
pip: 136Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 136
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=BBBbDbCbdeAA:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 62
1. Rollout^{1} 24/16 eq: 0.176
Player:
Opponent:45.97% (G:6.78% B:0.22%)
54.03% (G:11.65% B:0.32%)Conf.: ± 0.011 (0.187...0.165)  [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 32 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 24/22 21/15 eq: 0.206 (0.030)
Player:
Opponent:44.95% (G:8.08% B:0.20%)
55.05% (G:11.61% B:0.31%)Conf.: ± 0.011 (0.217...0.195)  [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 19 seconds3. Rollout^{1} 21/15 8/6 eq: 0.213 (0.037)
Player:
Opponent:44.11% (G:9.97% B:0.25%)
55.89% (G:12.37% B:0.33%)Conf.: ± 0.012 (0.225...0.201)  [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 22 seconds4. Rollout^{1} 21/13 eq: 0.215 (0.039)
Player:
Opponent:44.72% (G:7.35% B:0.17%)
55.28% (G:11.13% B:0.25%)Conf.: ± 0.012 (0.227...0.203)  [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds5. Rollout^{2} 13/5 eq: 0.268 (0.092)
Player:
Opponent:42.81% (G:11.13% B:0.20%)
57.19% (G:14.21% B:0.49%)Conf.: ± 0.018 (0.286...0.250)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 36 seconds6. Rollout^{2} 8/6 8/2 eq: 0.275 (0.099)
Player:
Opponent:42.90% (G:11.38% B:0.21%)
57.10% (G:15.38% B:0.55%)Conf.: ± 0.020 (0.295...0.255)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 30 seconds7. Rollout^{2} 24/22 8/2 eq: 0.284 (0.107)
Player:
Opponent:42.83% (G:9.55% B:0.21%)
57.17% (G:15.23% B:0.55%)Conf.: ± 0.020 (0.304...0.263)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds8. Rollout^{2} 21/15 13/11 eq: 0.305 (0.129)
Player:
Opponent:41.70% (G:11.06% B:0.30%)
58.30% (G:14.46% B:0.72%)Conf.: ± 0.022 (0.327...0.283)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 447 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is peever
score: 0
pip: 154Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 152
score: 0
Blue is NevzatDoganXGID=bEBBcDAcbdaA:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 21
1. Rollout^{1} 24/21 eq: 0.026
Player:
Opponent:50.70% (G:11.08% B:0.56%)
49.30% (G:17.24% B:0.56%)Conf.: ± 0.014 (0.041...0.012)  [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 14 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 24/22 6/5 eq: 0.069 (0.043)
Player:
Opponent:49.63% (G:12.17% B:0.67%)
50.37% (G:18.50% B:0.82%)Conf.: ± 0.014 (0.084...0.055)  [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 23 seconds3. Rollout^{1} 24/22 16/15 eq: 0.074 (0.048)
Player:
Opponent:49.26% (G:11.33% B:0.66%)
50.74% (G:17.26% B:0.53%)Conf.: ± 0.015 (0.089...0.059)  [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 09 seconds4. Rollout^{1} 13/11 6/5 eq: 0.084 (0.058)
Player:
Opponent:49.68% (G:12.54% B:0.66%)
50.32% (G:19.04% B:1.17%)Conf.: ± 0.016 (0.100...0.068)  [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 19 seconds5. Rollout^{2} 16/13 eq: 0.115 (0.089)
Player:
Opponent:47.77% (G:10.91% B:0.49%)
52.23% (G:15.64% B:0.46%)Conf.: ± 0.014 (0.129...0.101)  [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 17 seconds6. Rollout^{2} 13/10 eq: 0.141 (0.114)
Player:
Opponent:47.66% (G:12.32% B:0.63%)
52.34% (G:18.54% B:0.91%)Conf.: ± 0.015 (0.156...0.125)  [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 32 seconds7. Rollout^{2} 16/15 13/11 eq: 0.149 (0.122)
Player:
Opponent:47.33% (G:12.00% B:0.66%)
52.67% (G:17.77% B:0.72%)Conf.: ± 0.014 (0.163...0.134)  [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 47 seconds8. Rollout^{2} 7/5 6/5 eq: 0.162 (0.136)
Player:
Opponent:47.19% (G:13.04% B:0.66%)
52.81% (G:18.82% B:0.96%)Conf.: ± 0.015 (0.177...0.148)  [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 04 seconds^{1} 1297 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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