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Rollout Results Posted, Brief Commentary

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 23 February 2014, at 5:42 p.m.

In Response To: 61P-61P-62R-51\$-21 (Paul Weaver)

The left position and its rollout results were posted here a few days ago. The right position was posted yesterday. Blue has a 62 to play on the left and a 21 to play on the right, so how could they possibly be related?

These two positions have the following in common: (1) Blue has the option in both to play a checker to the 13pt while keeping a blot on the 24pt. This is the "beginners' play," and I confess to being guilty of making this move in both instances. (2) Blue has the option in both to end up with blots on the 22pt and 15pt. (3) The best play in both is to end up with blots on the 21pt and 16pt.

Here is what Nack wrote:

"White's impending prime increases Blue's incentive to immediately make a bid to escape with his last back checker. I think that compels 24/22 with the deuce.

I'd go ahead and maximize escape potential by stepping up the ace as well, by playing U (Up, 24/21). Most of White's hit-and-cover numbers are duplicated. I was tempted, though, by other aces, as w (wild, 24/22 6/5) and R (Run, 24/22 16/15) also have duplications.

If White's 7pt were not yet made and/or her 5pt not yet slotted, a stronger case could be made for the 4-duping \$ (Slot, 13/11 6/5), and R (Run, 16/13) would be in the "running," as might the 3-duping S (Split, 16/15 13/11). It would depend on the exact position; no doubt there are interesting variants.

P (Point, 7/5 6/5) diversifies the opponent's 6s and I'd therefore eliminate it in a direct comparison with \$."

 White is NevzatDogan score: 0 pip: 136 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 136 score: 0 Blue is peever
XGID=-B-B--BbD---bC---bde-A--A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 62

1.Rollout124/16eq: -0.176
 Player:Opponent: 45.97% (G:6.78% B:0.22%)54.03% (G:11.65% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.187...-0.165) - [100.0%]Duration: 5 minutes 32 seconds
2.Rollout124/22 21/15eq: -0.206 (-0.030)
 Player:Opponent: 44.95% (G:8.08% B:0.20%)55.05% (G:11.61% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.217...-0.195) - [0.0%]Duration: 5 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout121/15 8/6eq: -0.213 (-0.037)
 Player:Opponent: 44.11% (G:9.97% B:0.25%)55.89% (G:12.37% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.225...-0.201) - [0.0%]Duration: 5 minutes 22 seconds
4.Rollout121/13eq: -0.215 (-0.039)
 Player:Opponent: 44.72% (G:7.35% B:0.17%)55.28% (G:11.13% B:0.25%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.227...-0.203) - [0.0%]Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds
5.Rollout213/5eq: -0.268 (-0.092)
 Player:Opponent: 42.81% (G:11.13% B:0.20%)57.19% (G:14.21% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.286...-0.250) - [0.0%]Duration: 1 minute 36 seconds
6.Rollout28/6 8/2eq: -0.275 (-0.099)
 Player:Opponent: 42.90% (G:11.38% B:0.21%)57.10% (G:15.38% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.295...-0.255) - [0.0%]Duration: 1 minute 30 seconds
7.Rollout224/22 8/2eq: -0.284 (-0.107)
 Player:Opponent: 42.83% (G:9.55% B:0.21%)57.17% (G:15.23% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.304...-0.263) - [0.0%]Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds
8.Rollout221/15 13/11eq: -0.305 (-0.129)
 Player:Opponent: 41.70% (G:11.06% B:0.30%)58.30% (G:14.46% B:0.72%) Conf.: ± 0.022 (-0.327...-0.283) - [0.0%]Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 447 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 White is peever score: 0 pip: 154 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 152 score: 0 Blue is NevzatDogan
XGID=-b----EBB---cD--Acbda---A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout124/21eq: -0.026
 Player:Opponent: 50.70% (G:11.08% B:0.56%)49.30% (G:17.24% B:0.56%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.041...-0.012) - [100.0%]Duration: 8 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout124/22 6/5eq: -0.069 (-0.043)
 Player:Opponent: 49.63% (G:12.17% B:0.67%)50.37% (G:18.50% B:0.82%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.084...-0.055) - [0.0%]Duration: 8 minutes 23 seconds
3.Rollout124/22 16/15eq: -0.074 (-0.048)
 Player:Opponent: 49.26% (G:11.33% B:0.66%)50.74% (G:17.26% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.089...-0.059) - [0.0%]Duration: 11 minutes 09 seconds
4.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: -0.084 (-0.058)
 Player:Opponent: 49.68% (G:12.54% B:0.66%)50.32% (G:19.04% B:1.17%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.100...-0.068) - [0.0%]Duration: 10 minutes 19 seconds
5.Rollout216/13eq: -0.115 (-0.089)
 Player:Opponent: 47.77% (G:10.91% B:0.49%)52.23% (G:15.64% B:0.46%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.129...-0.101) - [0.0%]Duration: 8 minutes 17 seconds
6.Rollout213/10eq: -0.141 (-0.114)
 Player:Opponent: 47.66% (G:12.32% B:0.63%)52.34% (G:18.54% B:0.91%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.156...-0.125) - [0.0%]Duration: 10 minutes 32 seconds
7.Rollout216/15 13/11eq: -0.149 (-0.122)
 Player:Opponent: 47.33% (G:12.00% B:0.66%)52.67% (G:17.77% B:0.72%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.163...-0.134) - [0.0%]Duration: 10 minutes 47 seconds
8.Rollout27/5 6/5eq: -0.162 (-0.136)
 Player:Opponent: 47.19% (G:13.04% B:0.66%)52.81% (G:18.82% B:0.96%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.177...-0.148) - [0.0%]Duration: 10 minutes 04 seconds
1 1297 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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