I rolled out seventeen plays, but XG allows you to post the rollout results of a max of fifteen. The 16th play is 20/18 6/5, with an equity of -.421, while last place honors go to 21/20 8/6, with an equity of -.505. This amazing play accomplishes three objectives: (1) It stacks instead of unstacks the 6pt, (2) It breaks the 8pt and (3) It gives up one of Blue's anchors for no good reason.
After the best play, 6/5 6/4, XG claims Blue's equity is -.010. I would be willing to play either side as a prop against most non-Danes. To make it fairer, we could alternate sides.
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/5 6/4 | eq: -0.010 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.70% (G:13.17% B:0.50%)
48.30% (G:20.24% B:0.37%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.022...+0.002) - [97.5%]
Duration: 47 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 16/14 6/5 | eq: -0.025 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.73% (G:13.12% B:0.54%)
49.27% (G:18.42% B:0.34%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.034...-0.015) - [2.5%]
Duration: 43 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 16/15 6/4 | eq: -0.042 (-0.032) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.39% (G:13.01% B:0.51%)
49.61% (G:18.35% B:0.36%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.051...-0.032) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.048 (-0.039) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.51% (G:13.37% B:0.54%)
49.49% (G:19.40% B:0.37%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.058...-0.038) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout3 | 6/3 | eq: -0.093 (-0.084) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.57% (G:12.69% B:0.50%)
50.43% (G:20.55% B:0.41%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.106...-0.081) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout2 | 16/13 | eq: -0.108 (-0.098) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.13% (G:12.44% B:0.45%)
51.87% (G:16.24% B:0.31%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.116...-0.100) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| 7. | Rollout4 | 16/15 13/11 | eq: -0.121 (-0.112) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.96% (G:12.45% B:0.45%)
51.04% (G:20.82% B:0.53%) | Conf.: ± 0.028 (-0.149...-0.094) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 8. | Rollout4 | 13/10 | eq: -0.124 (-0.114) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.09% (G:12.05% B:0.51%)
50.91% (G:20.89% B:0.42%) | Conf.: ± 0.026 (-0.149...-0.098) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| 9. | Rollout4 | 8/5 | eq: -0.185 (-0.175) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.35% (G:11.53% B:0.43%)
51.65% (G:23.16% B:0.50%) | Conf.: ± 0.030 (-0.215...-0.155) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 07 seconds |
|
| 10. | Rollout4 | 16/15 8/6 | eq: -0.219 (-0.209) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.81% (G:11.12% B:0.42%)
53.19% (G:22.35% B:0.50%) | Conf.: ± 0.028 (-0.247...-0.191) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 56 seconds |
|
| 11. | Rollout4 | 21/20 16/14 | eq: -0.269 (-0.259) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.48% (G:10.83% B:0.45%)
55.52% (G:19.93% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.022 (-0.290...-0.247) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| 12. | Rollout4 | 21/20 6/4 | eq: -0.311 (-0.301) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.99% (G:10.82% B:0.46%)
55.01% (G:24.67% B:0.53%) | Conf.: ± 0.027 (-0.338...-0.284) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| 13. | Rollout4 | 21/20 13/11 | eq: -0.344 (-0.334) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.82% (G:10.59% B:0.43%)
56.18% (G:24.14% B:0.62%) | Conf.: ± 0.028 (-0.372...-0.315) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| 14. | Rollout4 | 21/18 | eq: -0.363 (-0.354) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.91% (G:10.73% B:0.47%)
56.09% (G:25.26% B:0.53%) | Conf.: ± 0.024 (-0.388...-0.339) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| 15. | Rollout4 | 20/18 16/15 | eq: -0.391 (-0.382) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.23% (G:10.48% B:0.46%)
56.77% (G:25.85% B:0.64%) | Conf.: ± 0.026 (-0.417...-0.366) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| |
1 4922 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 4921 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 4920 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
4 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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