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please help! (i may be blind...)

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 1 April 2014, at 4:39 a.m.

In Response To: please help! (i may be blind...) (sonrik)

Figuring out how often you win should be easy. You hit with 25/36 shots and have to pass the cube any time you don't hit. That means you win ~69.5% of the time. The numbers shown in the XG panel are cubeless numbers and should be completely ignored sometimes. I find it easier to push this agenda so people understand it by providing an example. Cube action for money:

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 4
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 4
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 86.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 86.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 13.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 13.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.722 +1.444
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.722 (-0.278)
Double/Take:+1.444 (+0.444)
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Obviously the cube action is double/pass but the XG panel will tell you White wins almost 14% of the time. White never wins because he passes. We know in this particular position what the bot it telling us yet somehow we don't feel comfortable ignoring it in other positions when we should.

Back to the original problem where we are winning 69.5% of the time. How often do we win a gammon? Well if we pick up both checkers and have perfect spares we would win a gammon against a crunched board such as this one about 45% of the time. We won't have perfect spares since we already have a man on the deuce and we don't know where the other two might end up so I'd put that number at about 40% here. (I would put it higher but we're going to play our other spare deep sometimes in an effort to have more shots at the second blot) Four out of the 25 games we hit we hit both immediately and one of those games we can't possibly hit the other checker [55]. Of the remaining 20 games I think we're still a favorite to pick up the second blot so let's WAG 14 of those.

That means overall we get both checkers in 18 games winning a gammon 40% of the time when we do or ~7 games or ~20% gammons.


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