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OLM 20140406A -- The Prime Factors

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Sunday, 6 April 2014, at 1:31 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140406A -- The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

According to the Magriel-criteria it scores as follows:

-------------------

Behind: Yes

Anchor: Yes

Blots: Blue outside/ White inside

Board: No

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Simply put, it scores 2,5 - 1,5. But the quality of the board and the blue prime should be taken into account as well. The most important motivational criterium is the behind-criterium. The other criteria are an indication of the succes of the bold play.

b/23 8x3 is too bold, since it breaks a good blue asset (the prime) and makes the white board relatively count.

b/23 20/15 is not so risky, only D2 and {64}, a risk of 3/36, effectively a little less because of the 8/36 returns on {64}, so lets say about 7% risk.

The reward is a lot higher {61,64,41,62,D2} make a pure 5-prime, and all 3's {21,D1} and 5's make a broken 5-prime, only {D4,D6,42} are not so clear (though surely not bad), so let's say 32/36 reward.

The chance that blue will get in a Double/Pass position next move is 93% x 32/36 = about 80%.

My answer is b/23 20/15.

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