Robertie discards hitting play in favor of making the 5pt since blue has 5 blots while being outboarded. Behind in the race, we need to either hit to try to win the race or prime white. Of the two priming plays, making 9pt is clearly superior to making the 5pt since it blocks white anchor. Actually, hitting is not far behind making the 9pt.
           
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 119 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 136
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---bB-CBC-A-AAAabb-ca-bAb-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 12/9 10/9 | eq: +0.255 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.38% (G:13.06% B:0.62%)
32.62% (G:12.46% B:0.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.250...+0.260) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 57 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/20* 14/13 | eq: +0.243 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.46% (G:16.98% B:0.98%)
33.54% (G:14.57% B:0.49%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.239...+0.248) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 23/20* 13/12 | eq: +0.212 (-0.043) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.54% (G:16.25% B:0.97%)
34.46% (G:14.62% B:0.53%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.202...+0.221) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 8/5 6/5 | eq: +0.165 (-0.090) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.06% (G:12.52% B:0.54%)
34.94% (G:16.57% B:1.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.156...+0.173) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 23/20* 8/7 | eq: +0.153 (-0.102) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.69% (G:17.01% B:1.03%)
35.31% (G:17.45% B:2.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.143...+0.163) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1034449
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1034449
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
The reason hitting is so close to priming is that white has one more blot on her 10pt.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 117 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 136
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---bB-CBC-A-AAA-bc-ca-bAb-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 12/9 10/9 | eq: +0.286 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.20% (G:13.92% B:0.63%)
31.80% (G:11.46% B:0.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.274...+0.297) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/5 6/5 | eq: +0.207 (-0.079) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.96% (G:13.22% B:0.56%)
34.04% (G:15.11% B:0.89%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.198...+0.215) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 23/20* 14/13 | eq: +0.203 (-0.083) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.75% (G:14.92% B:0.85%)
34.25% (G:14.50% B:0.51%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.194...+0.212) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60716123
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10