Half the battle here is recognizing that 24/22* wins significantly more games. White's board is strong but she doesn't have that much ammo for an attack. The race being what it is, an ace-point game is not an attractive game plan.
I'm including 8/7 3/1* because that's the play I somehow managed to find when this position arose OTB. Gross hallucinations like this are one reason I can't seem to drive my long-term average PR down to where I feel it "ought" to be.
          
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 132 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 145
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-A-bEBCa---B--a--cbbabB-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22* 8/7 | eq: -0.355 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.13% (G:8.83% B:0.42%)
63.87% (G:29.52% B:1.67%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.365...-0.345) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 52 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22* 3/2 | eq: -0.393 (-0.038) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.13% (G:8.14% B:0.37%)
64.87% (G:30.72% B:1.92%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.403...-0.382) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/3 | eq: -0.429 (-0.074) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.12% (G:6.12% B:0.27%)
67.88% (G:24.29% B:1.31%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.440...-0.419) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 33 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 8/7 3/1* | eq: -0.598 (-0.243) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 27.04% (G:4.72% B:0.13%)
72.96% (G:27.00% B:2.21%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.607...-0.590) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10