I believe that this is one of the most difficult problems in this series. I've included 3ply/XGR rollouts for both Jacoby and no Jacoby below, and they show a significant difference. It's possible that XGR is screwing up the cube action in the next couple of turns, so I'd appreciate it if someone with a better computer will reroll these with, say, XGR+ for the first four or five cube decisions. Regardless, hitting is a serious candidate here, which I found very surprising despite Blue's race deficit.
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 131  Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver  pip: 177 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=aDBCaaaBaabcBbbAA:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10 
Blue to play 52 
1.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/23 20/15*  eq: 0.368 
 Player: Opponent:  41.93% (G:11.95% B:0.98%) 58.07% (G:29.80% B:3.58%)  Conf.: ± 0.026 (0.394...0.342)  [100.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 13 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/20 6/4  eq: 0.438 (0.070) 
 Player: Opponent:  42.30% (G:9.79% B:0.55%) 57.70% (G:26.32% B:1.12%)  Conf.: ± 0.016 (0.454...0.422)  [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 00 second 

3.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/20 8/6  eq: 0.476 (0.108) 
 Player: Opponent:  39.13% (G:8.64% B:0.37%) 60.87% (G:20.38% B:0.70%)  Conf.: ± 0.017 (0.493...0.459)  [0.0%] Duration: 24 minutes 03 seconds 


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Rollout with no Jacoby:
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 131  Unlimited Game  pip: 177 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=aDBCaaaBaabcBbbAA:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10 
Blue to play 52 
1.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/23 20/15*  eq: 0.417 
 Player: Opponent:  41.68% (G:11.65% B:0.92%) 58.32% (G:29.57% B:3.37%)  Conf.: ± 0.009 (0.426...0.408)  [99.6%] Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes 

2.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/20 6/4  eq: 0.434 (0.017) 
 Player: Opponent:  42.23% (G:9.84% B:0.53%) 57.77% (G:26.44% B:1.08%)  Conf.: ± 0.009 (0.443...0.426)  [0.4%] Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes 

3.  Rollout^{2}  Bar/20 8/6  eq: 0.485 (0.068) 
 Player: Opponent:  39.07% (G:8.72% B:0.38%) 60.93% (G:20.52% B:0.69%)  Conf.: ± 0.016 (0.501...0.468)  [0.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 53 seconds 


^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10