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3-ply/XGR rollout: stronger rollout requested

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 24 April 2014, at 2:09 p.m.

In Response To: Break anchor to hit? #5 (Timothy Chow)

I believe that this is one of the most difficult problems in this series. I've included 3-ply/XGR rollouts for both Jacoby and no Jacoby below, and they show a significant difference. It's possible that XGR is screwing up the cube action in the next couple of turns, so I'd appreciate it if someone with a better computer will re-roll these with, say, XGR+ for the first four or five cube decisions. Regardless, hitting is a serious candidate here, which I found very surprising despite Blue's race deficit.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 131 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 177 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a---DBCaa-aB-a-abcBbb-AA:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 52

1.	Rollout1	Bar/23 20/15*	eq: -0.368
	Player: Opponent: 41.93% (G:11.95% B:0.98%) 58.07% (G:29.80% B:3.58%) Conf.: ± 0.026 (-0.394...-0.342) - [100.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 13 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20 6/4	eq: -0.438 (-0.070)
	Player: Opponent: 42.30% (G:9.79% B:0.55%) 57.70% (G:26.32% B:1.12%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.454...-0.422) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 00 second
3.	Rollout1	Bar/20 8/6	eq: -0.476 (-0.108)
	Player: Opponent: 39.13% (G:8.64% B:0.37%) 60.87% (G:20.38% B:0.70%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.493...-0.459) - [0.0%] Duration: 24 minutes 03 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

---

Rollout with no Jacoby:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 131 Unlimited Game pip: 177 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a---DBCaa-aB-a-abcBbb-AA:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 52

1.	Rollout1	Bar/23 20/15*	eq: -0.417
	Player: Opponent: 41.68% (G:11.65% B:0.92%) 58.32% (G:29.57% B:3.37%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.426...-0.408) - [99.6%] Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20 6/4	eq: -0.434 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 42.23% (G:9.84% B:0.53%) 57.77% (G:26.44% B:1.08%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.443...-0.426) - [0.4%] Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
3.	Rollout2	Bar/20 8/6	eq: -0.485 (-0.068)
	Player: Opponent: 39.07% (G:8.72% B:0.38%) 60.93% (G:20.52% B:0.69%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.501...-0.468) - [0.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 53 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Break anchor to hit? #5
  Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 23 April 2014, at 12:03 a.m.
  • Break anchor to hit? #5
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 23 April 2014, at 12:18 a.m.
    • Break anchor to hit? #5
      lenny -- Wednesday, 23 April 2014, at 4:46 a.m.
      • Break anchor to hit? #5
        Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 23 April 2014, at 5:32 a.m.
  • Break anchor to hit? #5
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 23 April 2014, at 7:09 p.m.
  • 3-ply/XGR rollout: stronger rollout requested
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 24 April 2014, at 2:09 p.m.
    • 3-ply/XGR rollout: stronger rollout requested
      ah_clem -- Thursday, 24 April 2014, at 9:09 p.m.
    • 3-ply/XGR rollout: stronger rollout requested
      Bruce Farquhar -- Monday, 28 April 2014, at 7:26 p.m.