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Donkey Corner #13 - Rollout + Analysis

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 13 May 2014, at 1:02 a.m.

In Response To: Donkey Corner #13 (Stick)

Running wasn't an option in my mind as it leaves our anchor at a score we definitely fear gammons and it allows the opponent usually to hit and make the 5pt or hit and cover. One of the two. We're then in the air against a strong four point board needing to perform immediately. XGR++ had running as a triple whopper.

The reflex play for everyone is probably hitting and it was mine too. In backgammon in general I would say go with your instincts or go with your reflexes. Here though, I started thinking, and that's when I got into trouble.

My opponent's gammon value at this score is of course 1.0. With this in mind and my gammons being worthless I looked at how strong almost all of his aces are after I hit and how seldom I cover when he does fan the first time. [21 11] hit two or three checkers and [61 51 41] all hit and cover. Then a similar situation would repeat if I didn't throw a nine or ten to cover.

One thing you should think about is if you hit, he fans, do you cover with those numbers you can break your board with or not? I thought about it at the time and I honestly wasn't sure. Turns out you definitely don't play safe by ripping the board up from the middle or back. Leave it in place and roll the dice as they say another turn.

As was mentioned, one of the issues with 11/5 10/6 is that we're leaving good sixes and twos for our opponent to hop out or hit. That's 14 hitting shots that are pretty good immediately anyway (with many hit & covers still). I am also hoping next turn if he doesn't roll a six or two that I can hit him loose on the ace point and leave him the 11 shots I'm refusing to leave him now!

The gammon value combined with the strength of his aces scared me off the natural play. Donkey! (Sorry, I wanted to be someone in the bg world so I thought calling myself a donk would accomplish that or so I've read) Even if I am hit with an ace I still have the anchor so not too much gammon danger and I'm favored to come in still. I got pessimistic as we often do in bg.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 120
7 point match
pip: 112
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
Blue to play 46

1.Rollout111/1* eq: +0.253
72.01% (G:33.46% B:1.32%)
27.99% (G:9.38% B:0.63%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.246...+0.259) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout111/5 10/6eq: +0.195 (-0.058)
65.51% (G:23.89% B:1.15%)
34.49% (G:5.76% B:0.74%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.189...+0.201) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 32 seconds
1 972 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59608888
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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