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| XGID=--a--aE-CA--eD---c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:5:6 | |||||
| Blue to play 32 | |||||
43Z-41U-32
The first question is how to play the 3. Blue can use it to anchor, hit, or neither. If Blue anchors, then he will have a variety of 2s to choose from:
| S = 24/21, 13/11 | 2 blots | 26 shots |
| B = 24/21, 9/7 | 1 blot | 22 shots |
| c = 24/21, 8/6 | 1 blot | 16 shots |
| E = 24/21, 6/4 | 2 blots | 23 shots |
The advantage to anchoring is that Blue secures an asset no matter what else happens. The problem, however, is that White also has some anchoring rolls himself. Between hitting and anchoring, a large majority of White’s numbers play constructively for him after Blue makes an anchor.
A second approach is the tyro’s “safe” play. Lifting the blot on the 9pt, C = 24/22 9/6, gives White a 3 to anchor, but relatively few POH numbers on the other side. As stacking plays go, this is not the worst. Blue protects his standing in the race, and reduces overall volatility. White will have fewer good rolls, and also more bad and indifferent ones.
Finally, there are the hitting plays. It is very early, so knocking an opponent off your 5pt is almost axiomatic. Here are the options:
| X = 24/22, 8/5* | 2 near-side blots | 22 ns. shots |
| H = 13/11, 8/5* | 3 near-side blots | 22 ns. shots |
| h = 9/7, 8/5* | 2 near-side blots | 22 ns. shots |
| A = 8/5*, 6/4 | 3 near-side blots | 28 ns. shots |
With so many choices, I am unlikely to find the best. I’ll go with Keene’s WTH attitude and just hit. The most balanced hitting play duplicates 5 and slots two good points: h = 9/7, 8/5*. It’s my play.
Mike