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Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Friday, 16 May 2014, at 3:27 a.m.

In Response To: 43S-41U-32? (Keene)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
5 point match
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
Blue to play 32


Although you have posted this at 5-away, 5-away, my answer will ignore score effects. I am treating this as a money game with neither Jacoby nor beavers.

The first question is how to play the 3. Blue can use it to anchor, hit, or neither. If Blue anchors, then he will have a variety of 2s to choose from:

S = 24/21, 13/11 2 blots 26 shots
B = 24/21, 9/7 1 blot 22 shots
c = 24/21, 8/6 1 blot 16 shots
E = 24/21, 6/4 2 blots 23 shots

The advantage to anchoring is that Blue secures an asset no matter what else happens. The problem, however, is that White also has some anchoring rolls himself. Between hitting and anchoring, a large majority of White’s numbers play constructively for him after Blue makes an anchor.

A second approach is the tyro’s “safe” play. Lifting the blot on the 9pt, C = 24/22 9/6, gives White a 3 to anchor, but relatively few POH numbers on the other side. As stacking plays go, this is not the worst. Blue protects his standing in the race, and reduces overall volatility. White will have fewer good rolls, and also more bad and indifferent ones.

Finally, there are the hitting plays. It is very early, so knocking an opponent off your 5pt is almost axiomatic. Here are the options:

X = 24/22, 8/5* 2 near-side blots 22 ns. shots
H = 13/11, 8/5* 3 near-side blots 22 ns. shots
h = 9/7, 8/5* 2 near-side blots 22 ns. shots
A = 8/5*, 6/4 3 near-side blots 28 ns. shots

With so many choices, I am unlikely to find the best. I’ll go with Keene’s WTH attitude and just hit. The most balanced hitting play duplicates 5 and slots two good points: h = 9/7, 8/5*. It’s my play.



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