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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20140602A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: OLM 20140602A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION (Jason Lee)
Date: Tuesday, 3 June 2014, at 9:54 a.m.
What are the gammon win rates in this position?
The safer 5/1 4/3 gives us 7 shot-leaving numbers on our next turn. In addition, 2 more rolls would open a gap on the 4pt. The riskier 5/off results in 10 shot-leaving rolls. It, too, has 2 additional rolls that open up a gap, but this time, on the 3pt.
Of the 3 extra shots, a fair assumption is that the Dillies will hit 1 of them. When that happens, we will need to perform immediately, or else face a strong cube. By that time we will typically have borne off 6 or 7 checkers.
In case we are not hit, my best guess is that bearing off a checker now brings with it more downstream risk than safer play would, but I have nothing except intuition on which to base that belief. Intuition, that is, plus the fact of a more dangerous potential gap.
On the other hand, the gammon that Keene has been trying to warn his team about is a realistic possibility. If we rip off a checker now, we will be down to to 10 checkers. Barring doublets, an optimal bear-off might have us off in 5 rolls. Realistically, however, 6 or 7 is more likely. The Dillies will be rolling first, and may need 5 or 6 rolls themselves to save the gammon, especially when they do not roll a large set along the way.
This is the sort of middle area where an extra checker off could make a significant difference in the number of gammons we win. Does anybody have a strong feel for how many gammons we win under each of these candidate plays?
My inclination is still to play safe here, but I have decided to let the majority decide. I am withholding final decision on my (one) vote until I hear from all the rest of our team.
Mike
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