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4a5a recube action ROLLOUT

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 3 June 2014, at 1:56 p.m.

In Response To: 4a5a recube action - help understanding the rollout appreciated (ah_clem)

Almost everyone here will know that the takepoint is just the GWC at 5a 2a, or about 25.5%. Estimating the GWC from the position is not so easy, but it looked to me like O had that much. And for ND, she does - it's 27.26 according to XG. But with the cube turned, her GWC drop by almost two points putting this into pass territory.

When I first looked at the rollout I didn't notice that it was displaying ND numbers and couldn't figure our why it was a pass when the GWC was above the takepoint.

I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to explain why the DT GWC is so much lower than the ND GWC.

``` XGID=-BaCBBB-B------A---cAbdbc-:1:1:1:00:3:2:0:7:10
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 72.74% (G:2.47% B:0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.26% (G:2.12% B:0.03%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.47% (G:2.02% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.53% (G:6.95% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.462, Double=+1.278
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.783 (-0.217)
Redouble/Take: +1.071 (+0.071)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout: 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.781..+0.785) Confidence Double: ± 0.007 (+1.063..+1.078)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% ```

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