Phil never posted a rollout for this one, so I did one of my own—though for money, not ATS. I was a little surprised at the performance of 8/2*, especially since XGR++ suggested that it wasn't close. Admittedly, there's still a lot of variance; perhaps someone with a better computer can roll this out longer.
Phil said he made the "3rd best move"; I'm curious as to what that was. XGR++ suggests that this would have been 9/3 ATS, but maybe a full rollout disagrees?
RO for money:
         
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 170 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 146
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-ba-BBCBBA--ba--abbbb-A-AA:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 33 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 9/3 6/3 | eq: -0.077 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.33% (G:20.30% B:2.25%)
53.67% (G:14.64% B:0.60%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.088...-0.066) - [89.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 24/21 8/2* | eq: -0.087 (-0.010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.73% (G:21.95% B:3.47%)
55.27% (G:17.47% B:0.79%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.099...-0.076) - [10.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 24/21 5/2*(2) | eq: -0.103 (-0.026) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.91% (G:22.23% B:3.61%)
56.09% (G:14.66% B:0.62%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.114...-0.091) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | Bar/22 24/21 9/3 | eq: -0.157 (-0.080) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.75% (G:18.37% B:1.93%)
55.25% (G:16.75% B:0.73%) | Conf.: ± 0.022 (-0.179...-0.135) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 40 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
XGR++ for money:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 170 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 146
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-ba-BBCBBA--ba--abbbb-A-AA:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 33 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | Bar/22 9/3 6/3 | eq: +0.019 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.35% (G:20.85% B:2.23%)
52.65% (G:13.98% B:0.49%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | Bar/22 24/21 5/2*(2) | eq: -0.012 (-0.031) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.78% (G:22.61% B:3.57%)
55.22% (G:13.87% B:0.50%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | Bar/22 24/21 8/2* | eq: -0.020 (-0.039) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.40% (G:22.12% B:3.38%)
54.60% (G:16.79% B:0.70%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
XGR++ ATS:
| | White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 170 | 9 point match
Crawford | pip: 146
score: 8
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-ba-BBCBBA--ba--abbbb-A-AA:0:0:1:33:8:5:1:9:10 |
| Blue to play 33 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | Bar/22 9/3 6/3 | eq: -0.209 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.72% (G:22.76% B:3.13%)
53.28% (G:13.98% B:0.48%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | Bar/22 24/21 5/2*(2) | eq: -0.251 (-0.042) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.56% (G:23.10% B:3.75%)
55.44% (G:13.87% B:0.48%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | Bar/22 24/21 9/3 | eq: -0.262 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.23% (G:18.99% B:2.08%)
54.77% (G:16.25% B:0.55%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | Bar/22 24/21 8/2* | eq: -0.275 (-0.066) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.06% (G:22.35% B:3.49%)
54.94% (G:17.11% B:0.70%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2