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My biggest Blunder in a Live Match XG++ Evaluation

Posted By: David Presser
Date: Thursday, 26 June 2014, at 5:31 a.m.

In Response To: My biggest Blunder in a Live Match (David Presser)

My instinct was to make the 5 pt (a mere ~0.5 blunder). Then I stopped and started to think which only made things worse. I didn't even consider the top play which I would do automatically for money because I was too much in a defending the score mode. Long story short I effectively forfeited the game (I had to pass the following cube) when the top play doesn't even lead to a cube (see below). That was a good lesson in the psychology of the game.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 114
11 point match
pip: 110
score: 8

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB-bBDBBB---------cbbbcA-:0:0:1:53:8:2:0:11:10
Blue to play 53

1.XG Roller++6/3 6/1* eq: -0.204
Player:
Opponent:		52.70% (G:10.95% B:0.34%)
47.30% (G:16.59% B:0.64%)
2.XG Roller++8/3 6/3eq: -0.690 (-0.486)
Player:
Opponent:		42.96% (G:12.06% B:0.88%)
57.04% (G:23.69% B:0.48%)
3.XG Roller++9/1* eq: -0.954 (-0.750)
Player:
Opponent:		38.39% (G:7.26% B:0.22%)
61.61% (G:25.23% B:1.12%)
4.XG Roller++8/5 8/3eq: -1.000 (-0.796)
Player:
Opponent:		35.89% (G:9.48% B:0.54%)
64.11% (G:25.19% B:0.54%)
5.XG Roller++8/5 6/1* eq: -1.000 (-0.796)
Player:
Opponent:		37.54% (G:8.64% B:0.27%)
62.46% (G:27.98% B:1.28%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 1

score: 8
pip: 102
11 point match
pip: 115
score: 2

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aABAbBBBBB---------cbbbcA-:0:0:-1:00:8:2:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 47.15% (G:16.50% B:0.68%) 47.22% (G:16.09% B:0.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 52.85% (G:11.14% B:0.35%) 52.78% (G:11.11% B:0.34%)
Cubeless Equities -0.006 +0.171
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.198
Double/Take:+0.134 (-0.065)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.802)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.0%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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