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Cube Decision 5A-2A

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 3 July 2014, at 9:49 p.m.

In Response To: Cube Decision 5A-2A (ScottyK)

I prefer doing this first ignoring gammons:

Compared to 15.82% from dropping:

Take and lose for 0% MWC so risk is 15.82% Take and win single for 67.74% so reward is 67.74% - 15.82% = 51.92%

15.82/ (15.82 + 41.92) = 23.36%

To account for gammons one could use the average MWC after winning taking into account the gammon wins instead of using the 67.74%. I prefer to adjust afterwards by using the gammon value on a 4 cube. (.476 GP) x (.33% gammons)= .18%. Decreasing 23.36% by .18% gives 23.18%

I am not sure how XG came up with 23.10% instead. Perhaps it is using a gammon % estimate from evaluation instead of the RO.

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