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OLM 20140721A The Dilly Builders

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 21 July 2014, at 5:03 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140721A The Dilly Builders (Keene)

Lets look at your evaluation and see if we can improve your thought process.

I'll average what you specify as ranges for estimates.

You think that this is a .96 take.

You think that we lose 28% G's and that the opps win 72% total games. I'll assume that we can win 4% gammons so the net gammon differential is 24%. A gammon price of 0.5 for both is close enough here so effectively they win 72% plus 1/2 of 24% for a gammon adjusted 84% wins. .84-.16 = .680 cubeless. No way is a .680 cubeless game here a take let alone a .96 take.

So while you think you are passing a close technical take bcuz you don't like the position, in reality it is your estimate of a rather large number of G's lost in a position that is difficult to win that is causing you to pass.

I think that your G loss estimate is quite high since our opps have to move as well and with the race close, they just can't sit back as much as they'd like to and wait for us to open up and get two checkers pounded. If we get hit after attacking when they run a checker, our anchor while not ideal G insurance, should mean that we aren't G'd to often.

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