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OLM 20140721A The Dilly Builders

Posted By: Keene
Date: Monday, 21 July 2014, at 3:34 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140721A The Dilly Builders (Keene)

I should back this up a little. I still pass - no change there. However, I have a maxim that I use for these situations: If you can tolerate the risk, then the take / pass decision is based entirely on the race.

Here, I know that its premature to assume risk, since we may roll such that there is minimal risk, or there are shots for us, and we can dink and dodge our way home. However, some 2ply thinking here has me expecting a high likelihood that we will end up running one lone checker out, leaving multiple direct shots, and slim chances of escape.

So for me, I still think its a technical take, probably in the region of 0.03 to 0.05, but for the gammon loss rate (probably 25-30%), and the single losses very high - maybe 70-75%, I am applying a practical solution to a technical problem and passing.

I'll be interested to see the actual numbers on XG when I look it up tonight, as I know I need to tune my estimating skills, and hopefully, my guesstimates here are relatively close.

K

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