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Prime vs. prime: How good is XG?

Posted By: Martin
Date: Wednesday, 13 August 2014, at 5:34 p.m.

In Response To: Prime vs. prime: How good is XG? (Martin)

This is from a warm-up match in MC. I doubled and my opp took after some thought. It might be an obvious pass to some of you, but not to my opp and me and not to XG either. While XGR++ says it is a clear pass (1.063, see below), a rollout says it is a clear take (0.920, see further below). What surprises me is the big difference between XGR++ and the RO in this relatively normal position.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
5 point match
pip: 121
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=abBBBBBA----bBb----bbb-bB-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69,76% (G:34,74% B:4,55%) 67,30% (G:35,85% B:16,57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30,24% (G:5,95% B:0,35%) 32,70% (G:5,89% B:0,68%)
Cubeless Equities +0,817 +1,120
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,921 (-0,079)
Redouble/Take:+1,063 (+0,063)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
5 point match
pip: 121
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=abBBBBBA----bBb----bbb-bB-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68,49% (G:34,72% B:7,81%) 67,30% (G:35,85% B:16,57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31,51% (G:5,95% B:0,42%) 32,70% (G:5,89% B:0,68%)
Cubeless Equities +0,826 +1,120
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,867 (-0,053)±0,008 (+0,859..+0,875)
Redouble/Take:+0,920±0,012 (+0,908..+0,931)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,080)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19053
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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