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RO & comments

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 21 August 2014, at 3:24 a.m.

In Response To: 54S-22N-21? (John O'Hagan)

XGR+ found the best play OTB in this difficult 3rd roll position. I know I would have played the pedestrian 13/10 but that's not the best option. What's best? The RO isn't stat sig but it's a two horse race between 13/11 6/5 or 13/11 8/7. The former unstacks the taller 6-point and starts the better point and gives 6s,3s, and 1s to cover his 5-point. Starting the bar gives 6s,4s, and 1s to cover the bar. So the top two plays give White lots of ways to enter and cover if their blot on the 20-point gets hit or pointed on. That seems to be the key to this position IMHO.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 158
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-D---cDb--c-cAb--A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
to play 21

1.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: -0.515
Player:
Opponent:		39.00% (G:10.18% B:0.57%)
61.00% (G:23.47% B:1.86%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.522...-0.507) - [68.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 8/7eq: -0.518 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		37.66% (G:9.46% B:0.46%)
62.34% (G:23.65% B:2.10%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.529...-0.507) - [30.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
3.Rollout224/23 6/4eq: -0.530 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		38.00% (G:9.41% B:0.46%)
62.00% (G:22.19% B:1.29%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.540...-0.520) - [0.3%]
Duration: 38 minutes 07 seconds
4.Rollout224/23 13/11eq: -0.534 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		37.97% (G:9.85% B:0.44%)
62.03% (G:20.57% B:1.15%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.545...-0.522) - [0.2%]
Duration: 37 minutes 46 seconds
5.Rollout213/10eq: -0.536 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		38.25% (G:10.11% B:0.53%)
61.75% (G:22.06% B:1.25%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.548...-0.524) - [0.1%]
Duration: 36 minutes 32 seconds
6.Rollout224/23 20/18eq: -0.541 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		38.10% (G:9.47% B:0.48%)
61.90% (G:21.59% B:0.95%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.553...-0.529) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 58 seconds
7.Rollout324/22 8/7eq: -0.557 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		37.15% (G:8.72% B:0.41%)
62.85% (G:22.05% B:1.27%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.570...-0.545) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 37 seconds
8.Rollout420/18 6/5eq: -0.572 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:		38.25% (G:9.15% B:0.48%)
61.75% (G:24.77% B:1.38%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.587...-0.557) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 53 seconds
9.Rollout48/7 6/4eq: -0.582 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:		37.33% (G:9.21% B:0.41%)
62.67% (G:25.24% B:2.36%)		Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.603...-0.562) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 43 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1300 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

4 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

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