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3-pt anchor re-cube action ATS

Posted By: Keene
Date: Tuesday, 2 September 2014, at 4:55 p.m.

In Response To: 3-pt anchor re-cube action ATS (ap)

I'll count the crossovers. 14 to get home, 1 to bear off, thats 15, with blue on roll. Whats your risk? Pretty low. So, given that you should win about 55% gammons here - you definitely play on.

Also, worst case scenario, you get hit immediately, you still get lots of time to roll the in and out. How likely is that worst case? Very unlikely. Practically speaking, its a 1 in 10 to 1 in 18, varying chance of leaving a shot, which then repeats, but also has to be hit to hurt you. So, provided you can tolerate the 1/30 - 1/54 shot each roll that you leave a blot and it gets hit, then you keep playing. Think about the combinations: You have to leave a blot, opponent has to hit it. Easy decision really.

Ask yourself this question: If white only had 2 checkers on the 3pt, would you play on, or cash? Its still a big play on, simply because you still win a bunch of gammons.

K

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