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Best play ATS and for DMP? **ROLLOUTS**

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 6 September 2014, at 7:55 p.m.

In Response To: Best play ATS and for DMP? **ROLLOUTS** (Michael Depreli)

This is some further commentary on a position that Michael Depreli posted back on 25 August.

I was impressed that JOH and neilkaz were able to judge that the extra gammons from the double hit weren't worth it at 4a6a (when 6a owns the cube on 2). To illustrate how subtle the tradeoff is, I am posting rollouts at two other scores where gammons matter a lot but backgammons don't. Evidently it's not just the elevated gammon value that matters, but the recube vig as well.


Gammon go:





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 126
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 88
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cBCBBBC---------a-bcbcaA-:0:0:1:61:0:1:1:2:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout124/23* 23/17* eq: +1.721
Player:
Opponent:
80.23% (G:55.80% B:38.64%)
19.77% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+1.712...+1.729) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout124/17* eq: +1.688 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
86.16% (G:48.25% B:19.78%)
13.84% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+1.682...+1.695) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


4a4a:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 126
4 point match
pip: 88
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cBCBBBC---------a-bcbcaA-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:4:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout124/17* eq: +1.546
Player:
Opponent:
86.00% (G:48.89% B:18.96%)
14.00% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+1.540...+1.553) - [100.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 17 seconds
2.Rollout124/23* 23/17* eq: +1.481 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
79.58% (G:57.00% B:38.00%)
20.42% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.010 (+1.472...+1.491) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 37 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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