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DQ: Magriel NYT 16 June 1977 "A Sure Thing Can Backfire" *** RollOut ***

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Sunday, 7 September 2014, at 2:33 p.m.

In Response To: DQ: Magriel NYT 16 June 1977 "A Sure Thing Can Backfire" position (neilkaz)

The player made the wrong play, shown by the diagram, and gut punished by a 44.

I think the point was that care must be exercised at all times.





White is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 117
21 point match
pip: 75
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bBBC-BC--A-AA---c--bbbbb--:1:-1:1:3:7:0:21:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

1.Rollout113/12* 12/10eq: +1.270
Player:
Opponent:		90.33% (G:46.24% B:0.53%)
9.67% (G:0.33% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.266...+1.274) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 50 seconds
2.Rollout113/12* 11/9eq: +1.235 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		89.08% (G:46.33% B:0.50%)
10.92% (G:1.31% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.231...+1.239) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 14 seconds
3.XG Roller+13/12* 3/1eq: +1.172 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:		87.45% (G:42.91% B:0.35%)
12.55% (G:0.75% B:0.02%)
4.XG Roller+11/8eq: +0.832 (-0.438)
Player:
Opponent:		82.62% (G:22.71% B:0.13%)
17.38% (G:3.20% B:0.15%)
5.XG Roller+13/11 3/2eq: +0.810 (-0.460)
Player:
Opponent:		86.05% (G:12.09% B:0.03%)
13.95% (G:0.68% B:0.02%)
6.XG Roller+13/11 6/5eq: +0.809 (-0.461)
Player:
Opponent:		86.21% (G:11.67% B:0.03%)
13.79% (G:0.65% B:0.02%)
7.XG Roller+6/5 3/1eq: +0.797 (-0.473)
Player:
Opponent:		82.26% (G:18.89% B:0.11%)
17.74% (G:1.48% B:0.03%)
8.XG Roller+13/10eq: +0.793 (-0.477)
Player:
Opponent:		84.21% (G:14.41% B:0.03%)
15.79% (G:0.80% B:0.01%)
1 1332 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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