OTB, I chose a weak play: Resplitting out to the 18 along with 13/9(3). The back men are fine where they are so there's no need to resplit. Better to make the 9 and then decide on the other half of the move. Making the 4 is slightly better than reinforcing the 9 and starting the 4. The strong board will be great for you if Black rolls poorly and is forced to leave a shot. Leaving an ace shot isn't very risky. Black shouldn't hit with some aces since his board is wide open and hitting means abandoning his anchor.
1. | Rollout1 | 13/9(2) 8/4(2) | eq: +0.045 |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.57% (G:14.61% B:0.43%) 49.43% (G:10.23% B:0.34%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.035...+0.055) - [99.5%] Duration: 34 minutes 50 seconds |
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2. | Rollout1 | 13/9(3) 8/4 | eq: +0.027 (-0.018) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.41% (G:13.64% B:0.43%) 49.59% (G:10.44% B:0.37%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.018...+0.037) - [0.5%] Duration: 32 minutes 54 seconds |
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3. | Rollout1 | 13/9(2) 13/5 | eq: +0.018 (-0.028) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.40% (G:12.18% B:0.38%) 49.60% (G:9.80% B:0.29%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.008...+0.027) - [0.0%] Duration: 32 minutes 52 seconds |
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4. | Rollout2 | 13/5 8/4(2) | eq: -0.002 (-0.047) |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.16% (G:14.62% B:0.43%) 50.84% (G:10.92% B:0.42%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.016...+0.012) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 03 seconds |
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5. | Rollout2 | 22/18 13/9(3) | eq: -0.025 (-0.070) |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.49% (G:9.68% B:0.32%) 50.51% (G:9.38% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.038...-0.012) - [0.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 54 seconds |
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6. | Rollout2 | 22/6 | eq: -0.056 (-0.102) |
| Player: Opponent: | 48.90% (G:7.75% B:0.25%) 51.10% (G:8.53% B:0.18%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.068...-0.044) - [0.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 11 seconds |
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1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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