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My Calculations does not match XG.....

Posted By: __1ERROR1__
Date: Wednesday, 8 October 2014, at 2:35 a.m.

My calculations does not match XG, any body knows where the problem is? Indeed, during the match, I estimated all the numbers regarding WC and Gs perfectly, but I made a huge blunder. Here is my calculations, and I deeply appreciate if somebody tells me where the mistake is:

1) Calculating the raw TP for 3a-4a as the 3a cubes: d/p:0.33, d/t/w:0.6, d/t/l:0.18. Threfore, the DTP=35

2) the recube vig AtS is about 10-11% (and it is calculable, I remember I read it in Stick's 3a-4a article)

3) According to the bot: there is 26%Gs for white and 5%Gs for black, so if we multiplies the amount of Gs in gvs we will have: 26%(0.5)-5(1)=8

4) the lctp will be: (35-10.5)+(8)=32.5%

According to my analysis it should be marginal take/pass. That is, it should not be even a considerable error, BUT it is not the case.

Note: I do not need any general speaking methods like "the gap in white's homeboard" or "my anchor in his homeboard" or.....Also, I do not need any other methods, if you can tell me "what the problem is regarding my method and calculations?" it will be highly appreciated......

is 1ERROR1

score: 7
pip: 166
11 point match
pip: 119
score: 8

is profpianist
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.50% (G:26.82% B:1.03%) 67.35% (G:27.54% B:1.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.50% (G:5.09% B:0.20%) 32.65% (G:5.19% B:0.19%)
Cubeless Equities +0.772 +1.485
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.793
Double/Take:+0.722 (-0.070)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.207)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 20.2%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.12.202.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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