Recently, Taper_Mike posted XGR++ evaluations for three cube decisions in the Akiko-Kit match. I was slightly surprised that he chose XGR++ for this purpose. First of all, common sense suggests that a full rollout would be more accurate, and would take no time at all. Secondly, and perhaps more interestingly, I thought that 7-ply analysis might actually be more accurate than XGR++. I played around with the first cube position that Taper_Mike posted and the results are shown below. This isn't much data but I think the results are suggestive.
Full rollout:
| | White is Player 2
score: 6 pip: 17 | 17 point match | pip: 14 score: 12
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-CAC-----------------abca-:1:1:1:00:12:6:0:17:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
Player Winning Chances: | 76.702% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 76.692% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
Opponent Winning Chances: | 23.298% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 23.308% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
Cubeless Equities | +0.5340 | +0.9144 |
Cubeful Equities |
No redouble: | +0.6779 | ±0.0000 (+0.6778..+0.6779) |
Redouble/Take: | +0.4219 (-0.2560) | ±0.0000 (+0.4219..+0.4219) |
Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.3221) |
|
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 30.7% |
Rollout details |
46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++ Search interval: Gigantic
|
|
Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Duration: 38.0 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
7-ply:
| | White is Player 2
score: 6 pip: 17 | 17 point match | pip: 14 score: 12
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-CAC-----------------abca-:1:1:1:00:12:6:0:17:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Analyzed in 7-ply | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
Player Winning Chances: | 76.692% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 76.692% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
Opponent Winning Chances: | 23.308% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 23.308% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
Cubeless Equities | +0.5338 | +0.9144 |
Cubeful Equities |
No redouble: | +0.6779 | |
Redouble/Take: | +0.4220 (-0.2559) | |
Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.3221) |
|
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 30.7% |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
6-ply:
| | White is Player 2
score: 6 pip: 17 | 17 point match | pip: 14 score: 12
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-CAC-----------------abca-:1:1:1:00:12:6:0:17:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Analyzed in 6-ply | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
Player Winning Chances: | 76.692% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 76.692% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
Opponent Winning Chances: | 23.308% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 23.308% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
Cubeless Equities | +0.5338 | +0.9144 |
Cubeful Equities |
No redouble: | +0.6780 | |
Redouble/Take: | +0.4219 (-0.2561) | |
Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.3220) |
|
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 30.7% |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
5-ply:
| | White is Player 2
score: 6 pip: 17 | 17 point match | pip: 14 score: 12
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-CAC-----------------abca-:1:1:1:00:12:6:0:17:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Analyzed in 5-ply | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
Player Winning Chances: | 76.692% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 76.692% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
Opponent Winning Chances: | 23.308% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 23.308% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
Cubeless Equities | +0.5338 | +0.9144 |
Cubeful Equities |
No redouble: | +0.6806 | |
Redouble/Take: | +0.4219 (-0.2587) | |
Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.3194) |
|
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 30.9% |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
XGR++:
| | White is Player 2
score: 6 pip: 17 | 17 point match | pip: 14 score: 12
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-CAC-----------------abca-:1:1:1:00:12:6:0:17:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
Player Winning Chances: | 76.705% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 76.692% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
Opponent Winning Chances: | 23.295% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 23.308% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
Cubeless Equities | +0.5341 | +0.9144 |
Cubeful Equities |
No redouble: | +0.6774 | |
Redouble/Take: | +0.4212 (-0.2562) | |
Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.3226) |
|
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 30.7% |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2