62S-32w-63 – Unlimited Game & DMP

Unlimited Game, No Jacoby, No Beavers

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162

Unlimited Game

pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a--a-E-C--AeD---cAd-a--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Blue to play 63

Rollout¹

24/21* 21/15

eq: +0.2118

Player:
Opponent:

55.07% (G:14.76% B:0.81%)
44.93% (G:11.72% B:0.48%)

Conf.: ±0.0034 (+0.2084...+0.2152) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 07 minutes

Rollout¹

24/18 11/8

eq: +0.1932 (-0.0186)

Player:
Opponent:

55.08% (G:10.35% B:0.33%)
44.92% (G:8.87% B:0.30%)

Conf.: ±0.0026 (+0.1906...+0.1958) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 46 minutes

Rollout²

11/5 8/5

eq: +0.1664 (-0.0454)

Player:
Opponent:

53.98% (G:15.71% B:0.78%)
46.02% (G:12.72% B:0.52%)

Conf.: ±0.0072 (+0.1591...+0.1736) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 55 seconds

¹ 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 30619052
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 30619052
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2014-Dec-19
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
62S-32w-63-n-tm.xgp
n[R B19 P45] "<=31*5
n[R B34 P38] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Double Match Point

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162

1 point match

pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a--a-E-C--AeD---cAd-a--A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:1:10

Blue to play 63

Rollout¹

24/18 11/8

eq: +0.0994

Player:
Opponent:

54.97% (G:12.46% B:0.96%)
45.03% (G:9.48% B:0.82%)

Conf.: ±0.0014 (+0.0980...+0.1008) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes

Rollout¹

24/21* 21/15

eq: +0.0864 (-0.0131)

Player:
Opponent:

54.32% (G:19.72% B:2.75%)
45.68% (G:12.42% B:1.58%)

Conf.: ±0.0018 (+0.0846...+0.0882) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes

Rollout²

11/5 8/5

eq: +0.0741 (-0.0254)

Player:
Opponent:

53.70% (G:17.73% B:2.30%)
46.30% (G:13.30% B:1.43%)

Conf.: ±0.0022 (+0.0719...+0.0763) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 22 seconds

¹ 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3073630
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3073630
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2014-Dec-19
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
62S-32w-63-d-tm.xgp
d[B R13 P25] "<=15*7
d[R B4 P21] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

62S-32w-63 — Unlimited Games
Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 1.02 2-ply Trunc	721232664	+198.235	n[R B19 P34] '/0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	30619052	+211.8	n[R B19 P45] "<=31*5	Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	+205.7	n[R B34 P38] "&e	Taper_Mike

62S-32w-63 — Double Match Point
Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 1.04 2-ply Trunc, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross	767091148	+100.699	d[B R2 P25] '/0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR, MET: Kazaross XG2	3073630	+99.4	d[B R13 P25] "<=15*7	Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval, MET: Kazaross XG2	[XGR++ seed]	+99.7	d[R B4 P21] "&e	Taper_Mike

At DMP, especially when you are ahead, securing a racing advantage is a sound strategy. On the other hand, at DMP, you should, “Hit first, and ask questions later.” In this position, the simple anchoring play wins about 1% more games overall.

In unlimited games, the gammon differential is enough to overcome this. The number of single-game wins is about the same with either of the top two plays. The net advantage in gammons—3% after hitting, and only 1.5% after the safe anchoring play—tips the decision in favor of hitting.

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