It's clear you need some flexibility here before it becomes much more damaging to get hit. It's an interesting trade off for the top two moves between the tactical gain from the switch to the five point and the strategic weakening of the position by giving up your best home board point with little hope of remaking it any time soon. it's very close given that the cube action in the rollout is the straightforward immediate double after all moves, which I'm confidentish is right.
Congrats to XG 4ply here. I don't remember seeing a turnaround of above 0.3 before between the relative equity of what a bot would play and what rolls about best.
  White is Player 2
score: 3 pip: 167  7 point match  pip: 177 score: 5
Blue is Player 1   XGID=aaBbCcFACabcb:0:0:1:11:5:3:0:7:10  Blue to play 11   1.  Rollout^{1}  16/15(2) 16/14  eq: 0.768   Player: Opponent:  43.29% (G:6.89% B:0.69%) 56.71% (G:18.50% B:1.26%)  Conf.: ± 0.006 (0.774...0.762)  [99.5%] Duration: 14 hours 31 minutes 
 2.  Rollout^{1}  16/15(2) 6/5*(2)  eq: 0.779 (0.012)   Player: Opponent:  43.45% (G:7.47% B:0.76%) 56.55% (G:18.91% B:1.18%)  Conf.: ± 0.007 (0.786...0.773)  [0.5%] Duration: 14 hours 25 minutes 
 3.  Rollout^{2}  15/13 6/5*(2)  eq: 0.843 (0.076)   Player: Opponent:  43.13% (G:7.98% B:0.85%) 56.87% (G:19.97% B:1.29%)  Conf.: ± 0.015 (0.858...0.829)  [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes 
 4.  Rollout^{3}  16/14 6/5*(2)  eq: 0.873 (0.106)   Player: Opponent:  42.96% (G:8.04% B:1.22%) 57.04% (G:20.44% B:1.67%)  Conf.: ± 0.021 (0.894...0.852)  [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes 
 5.  Rollout^{3}  6/5*(2) 5/4(2)  eq: 0.891 (0.123)   Player: Opponent:  42.74% (G:8.17% B:1.00%) 57.26% (G:20.60% B:1.49%)  Conf.: ± 0.023 (0.914...0.868)  [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes 
  ^{1} 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 71284 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 4ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 4ply
^{2} 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 71284 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 4ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 4ply
^{3} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 71284 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 4ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 4ply


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: RockwellKazaross
  White is Player 2
score: 3 pip: 167  7 point match  pip: 177 score: 5
Blue is Player 1   XGID=aaBbCcFACabcb:0:0:1:11:5:3:0:7:10  Blue to play 11   1.  4ply  15/13 6/5*(2)  eq: 0.632   Player: Opponent:  44.96% (G:6.85% B:0.26%) 55.04% (G:17.26% B:0.34%)  
 2.  4ply  16/15(2) 6/5*(2)  eq: 0.674 (0.042)   Player: Opponent:  44.63% (G:6.73% B:0.29%) 55.37% (G:17.84% B:0.41%)  
 3.  4ply  16/14 6/5*(2)  eq: 0.740 (0.108)   Player: Opponent:  44.41% (G:7.36% B:0.31%) 55.59% (G:19.03% B:0.51%)  
 4.  4ply  6/5*(2) 5/4(2)  eq: 0.754 (0.121)   Player: Opponent:  43.98% (G:7.13% B:0.29%) 56.02% (G:18.89% B:0.43%)  
 5.  4ply  16/15(2) 16/14  eq: 0.873 (0.241)   Player: Opponent:  42.52% (G:6.92% B:0.24%) 57.48% (G:19.99% B:0.43%)  


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: RockwellKazaross