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BGonline.org Forums
Nactation Tutorial #15
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: Nactation Tutorial #15 (Igor)
Date: Tuesday, 6 January 2015, at 10:04 a.m.
If you make the 5pt instead of hitting, then I like playing down from the midpoint with the 3. Splitting seems like it opens up too much.
If you cover, White will have 1, 3, and 8 to match you. That's 24 numbers (if you count 22, which might not be played 13/5). Fully 1/3 of the time, White will fail to cover. In most of those cases, you will be clearly ahead. Even if White does cover, you will be on roll, so you will still be ahead by a tempo.
If you hit, White will be on the bar trying to hit your slotted checker. All 15 ways to roll a 5 will hit. In addition, there are 6 other rolls that hit with a 4 (or 22) from the 1pt, giving White 21 hitting numbers in all.
I don't see the need to enter a hitting contest when you can grab a sure thing now. My play is 13/10, 6/5, but cover and split is probably not far behind.
It would be interesting to compare this position with 21$-21$-31 and 41$-41$-31. In either of these variants, White's checkers are better diversified. His chance to keep pace, therefore, should be higher. Whether that would shift the balance towards hitting is something I cannot say. Of course, the related second-roll positions, 21$-31, 41$-31, and 51$-31 are all well known to be hits in an unlimited game.
Mike
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