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Nactation Tutorial #15 -- Rollout and variants

Posted By: Igor
Date: Thursday, 15 January 2015, at 3:41 p.m.

In Response To: Nactation Tutorial #15 (Igor)

It's clear to cover with the ace and then to choose between splitting and bringing one more checker down with 3. Among all Slot(5pt)-Slot(5pt)-31 sequences 51$-51$-31 presents the most difficult choice. I'd guess this is the reason this position was chosen for the tutorial.

The simple summary is as follows: it's correct to split with 3 except when your opening move was 41$, where it's best to bring a checker down. The only exception to this rule is the OP where splitting and bringing a checker down are essentially tied. Positions 41$-51$-31 and 21$-21$-31 are covered in Backgammon Openings as A141 and A143, respectively.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---AD-D---dD---d-da---B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.Rollout124/21 6/5eq: +0.191
Player:
Opponent:
54.57% (G:15.39% B:0.76%)
45.43% (G:12.27% B:0.49%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.188...+0.194) - [88.4%]
Duration: 14 hours 45 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: +0.188 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
54.19% (G:17.38% B:0.94%)
45.81% (G:13.28% B:0.70%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.185...+0.192) - [11.6%]
Duration: 13 hours 31 minutes
3.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.175 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
53.83% (G:17.13% B:0.92%)
46.17% (G:13.41% B:0.66%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.171...+0.178) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 hours 03 minutes
4.Rollout124/23 8/5eq: +0.163 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
53.70% (G:16.62% B:0.81%)
46.30% (G:13.25% B:0.58%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.160...+0.166) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 06 minutes
5.Rollout224/20* eq: +0.119 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
52.50% (G:14.30% B:0.77%)
47.50% (G:11.16% B:0.52%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.111...+0.128) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 44 minutes
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Using version 1

2 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Using version 1

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 164
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---AD-C--AdDa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.Rollout124/21 6/5eq: +0.183
Player:
Opponent:
54.46% (G:15.58% B:0.88%)
45.54% (G:13.22% B:0.60%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.179...+0.187) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: +0.167 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
53.99% (G:17.19% B:0.98%)
46.01% (G:14.31% B:0.83%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.163...+0.171) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
3.Rollout224/20* eq: +0.104 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
52.17% (G:15.68% B:1.00%)
47.83% (G:12.82% B:0.70%)
Conf.: 0.010 (+0.094...+0.114) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 46 seconds
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76008645
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76008645
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2012-Jul-11
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
21$-21$-31-tm.xgp
[E N16 H79] "<=20*5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 164
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 162
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---AD-CA--dDa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:13:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 13

1.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: +0.221
Player:
Opponent:
55.15% (G:18.17% B:1.10%)
44.85% (G:13.83% B:0.77%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.217...+0.226) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 6/5eq: +0.209 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
55.07% (G:16.51% B:0.99%)
44.93% (G:13.27% B:0.62%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.204...+0.214) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
3.Rollout224/23 8/5eq: +0.148 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
53.51% (G:17.06% B:0.90%)
46.49% (G:14.06% B:0.65%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.139...+0.156) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 27 seconds
4.Rollout28/5 6/5eq: +0.146 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
53.21% (G:18.08% B:1.12%)
46.79% (G:14.24% B:0.78%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.138...+0.154) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 36 seconds
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89190316
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89190316
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Igor Erovenko
2015-Jan-06
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
41$-21$-31-ie.xgp
[N E12 C74 A75] "<=15*5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 162
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---AD-CA--dD---d-da---B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: +0.276
Player:
Opponent:
56.26% (G:18.51% B:1.04%)
43.74% (G:13.15% B:0.76%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.267...+0.284) - [100.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout124/21 6/5eq: +0.243 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
55.84% (G:16.39% B:0.86%)
44.16% (G:12.67% B:0.59%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.234...+0.251) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 23 seconds
3.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.199 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
54.30% (G:18.10% B:0.91%)
45.70% (G:13.57% B:0.72%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.191...+0.207) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 00 second
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58039970
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2012-Jul-30
41$-51$-31-tm.xgp
[N E33 a77] "<=5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 164
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---AD-D---dDa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:13:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 13

1.Rollout124/21 6/5eq: +0.176
Player:
Opponent:
54.17% (G:15.58% B:0.93%)
45.83% (G:13.05% B:0.53%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.168...+0.184) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: +0.142 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
53.09% (G:17.17% B:1.02%)
46.91% (G:14.10% B:0.73%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.134...+0.150) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout124/23 8/5eq: +0.130 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
53.02% (G:16.61% B:0.85%)
46.98% (G:13.86% B:0.60%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.123...+0.138) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 10 seconds
4.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.129 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
52.84% (G:16.95% B:0.98%)
47.16% (G:14.15% B:0.68%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.121...+0.137) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 07 seconds
5.Rollout124/20* eq: +0.091 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
51.71% (G:15.29% B:1.02%)
48.29% (G:12.47% B:0.61%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.082...+0.099) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 35 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89190316
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Igor Erovenko
2015-Jan-06
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
51$-21$-31-ie.xgp
[E N34 C46 A47 H85] "<=5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 164
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---AE-C---dDa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:13:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 13

1.XG Roller++24/21 6/5eq: +0.199
Player:
Opponent:
54.38% (G:16.34% B:0.90%)
45.62% (G:12.29% B:0.48%)
2.XG Roller++13/10 6/5eq: +0.149 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
52.95% (G:17.65% B:1.04%)
47.05% (G:13.75% B:0.68%)
3.XG Roller++8/5 6/5eq: +0.105 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
51.89% (G:16.77% B:0.98%)
48.11% (G:14.04% B:0.65%)
4.XG Roller++24/20* eq: +0.070 (-0.128)
Player:
Opponent:
51.13% (G:14.94% B:0.91%)
48.87% (G:12.33% B:0.57%)
5.XG Roller++24/23 8/5eq: +0.070 (-0.129)
Player:
Opponent:
51.30% (G:16.07% B:0.84%)
48.70% (G:14.07% B:0.62%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---AE-C---dD---d-da---B-:0:0:1:13:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 13

1.Rollout124/21 6/5eq: +0.216
Player:
Opponent:
54.83% (G:16.85% B:0.82%)
45.17% (G:12.30% B:0.48%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.211...+0.222) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: +0.203 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
54.25% (G:18.62% B:0.93%)
45.75% (G:13.21% B:0.69%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.198...+0.209) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 38 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44214296
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Igor Erovenko
2014-Jan-11
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
31P-53P-41-ie.xgp
[N E13 S29 D35 U36] "<=10*5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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