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A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck

Posted By: sita
Date: Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 3:55 p.m.

In Response To: A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck (Timothy Chow)

This game is a very nice illustration what's going on in backgammon, I think. I explained this phenomenon to me always like this, spoken in the terms of the game:

Let's look at the state of the game after 20 coin flips, e.g. Let's say, the coin flipped 11 times in Rs direction, and thus 9 times in Bs direction. Since R is also more skillful, it could very well be that R has won now. R was also luckier, but only a little bit. Now look at a sequence which 11 times favors B instead. Now B has not won, the marker might even on Rs side. So, if B wants to win, she has to be way more lukier than R has to be to win.

Thus, If R wins, she might have an average luck of +2. If B wins, she might have an average luck of +4. Because at +2 she simply has not won the game yet. Since the total luck has to be 0, R ends in twice as many games luckier than B, though "less luckier per game" than B. Both win most of their games when luckier.

You could simplify the game even more, when you say that you only flip coins, but every 10th flip the more skillful person sets the marker one point in her direction.

Messages In This Thread

• A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 26 January 2015, at 5:28 p.m.
  • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
    Stick -- Monday, 26 January 2015, at 5:48 p.m.
  • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
    Jason Lee -- Monday, 26 January 2015, at 5:50 p.m.
  • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
    Bob Koca -- Monday, 26 January 2015, at 6:04 p.m.
    • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
      Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 26 January 2015, at 8:53 p.m.
    • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
      Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 26 January 2015, at 9:05 p.m.
      • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 5:38 p.m.
    • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 12:14 a.m.
      • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 12:55 a.m.
        • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 1:57 a.m.
          • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
            Fatboy -- Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 2:11 a.m.
  • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
    Phil Simborg -- Monday, 26 January 2015, at 9:43 p.m.
    • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 12:21 a.m.
      • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
        Phil Simborg -- Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 2:10 a.m.
        • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 2:33 a.m.
        • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 3:02 a.m.
  • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
    Stein Kulseth -- Monday, 26 January 2015, at 11:14 p.m.
    • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 12:28 a.m.
  • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
    sita -- Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 3:55 p.m.
    • I'm beginning to see the "disconnect" here
      Phil Simborg -- Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 4:08 p.m.
      • I'm beginning to see the "disconnect" here
        Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 12:06 a.m.
    • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
      Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 5:39 p.m.
      • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
        Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 12:06 a.m.
        • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
          Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 1:10 a.m.
          • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
            Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 1:43 a.m.
            • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
              Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 2:06 a.m.
              • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
                Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 29 January 2015, at 3:30 a.m.
          • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
            Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 8:19 a.m.
            • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
              Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 8:53 a.m.
              • My Koca disconnect problem
                Phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 11:01 a.m.
              • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
                Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 12:22 p.m.
            • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
              Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 9:30 a.m.
              • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
                Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 2:09 p.m.
  • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 7:39 p.m.
    • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
      Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 8:49 p.m.
    • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 12:18 a.m.
      • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
        sita -- Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 10:11 a.m.
        • A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck
          sita -- Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 12:38 p.m.
  • we get out, what we put in
    rambiz -- Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 7:39 p.m.
    • we get out, what we put in
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 29 January 2015, at 3:27 a.m.
      • we get out, what we put in
        rambiz -- Thursday, 29 January 2015, at 5:27 a.m.
        • we get out, what we put in
          Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 29 January 2015, at 1:44 p.m.
        • we get out, what we put in(deed)
          rambiz -- Friday, 30 January 2015, at 6:33 a.m.