
BGonline.org Forums
we get out, what we put in
Posted By: rambiz
Date: Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 7:39 p.m.
In Response To: A madeup game to illustrate some points about skill and luck (Timothy Chow)
One would expect two players of equal skill to not only win equal number of games on average but also get luckier on approximately equal number of occasions. This is though absolutely not true.
Per definition, equally skilful players achieve the same error rate on average. I think that from two equally skilful players, the one who plays more consistently, meaning has a lower variance in his performance, gets more often lucky.
With respect to your simulations, you may like to assign the same average scoring probability to the two contenders, but say if one guy has %80 in every try at the basket, give the other guy 1/2 of the time %90 and 1/2 of the time %70 success rate. I expect the later guy to win more games (compared to the consistent guy), albeit being unlucky against any opponent, be he/she equally skilled or not.

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