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Which way to blot?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 12:34 a.m.

In Response To: Which way to blot? (Golden)

I agree with your play, although I reasoned slightly differently.

The first thing I noted was that bearing off a checker doesn't reduce the number of rolls we need to bear off, because we have an even number of checkers, and we're not going to miss. That means there's not much incentive to bear off a checker, except perhaps to increase our winning chances slightly after we're hit.

So 3/2*/off looks the weakest, leaving extra shots for no real benefit.

We're left with the choice between 3/off and 3/2* 3/1. Hitting increases G's and BG's and doesn't leave any future blotting danger so it seems like it has to be better.

If Blue had 5 checkers on the 1pt then I think I would play 3/off.

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