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Whats your game plan here supporting your choice?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 2:18 a.m.

In Response To: Whats your game plan here supporting your choice? (__1ERROR1__)

Well, the QF play is 8/2 6/5*. Yellow's gammon value is elevated while Black's is reduced. Black has a blot in his board and another outfield blot that might get picked up. Yellow is behind in the race and is looking for a way to turn the game around. So all that makes 8/2 6/5* plausible.

What is the alternative? 13/7 8/7 doesn't seem to help Yellow's cause so the main alternative seems to be 13/12 8/2. But I'd estimate Yellow's winning chances at around 30% after the quiet play, which is to say not very good. So I would banana split. I think that's the DMP play and the lopsided gammon value should mitigate the gammon losses.

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