I played "as per plan" 18/13 6/4 with 1 blot and the double "in my pocket". In the match analysis I was dinged it was a blunder. In a XG roller++ it told me the other option I looked at OTB 18/16 13/8 won considerably more gammons and practically the same wins as the BEST 16/11 13/11. Amazing! Ja se sblaznim! - I know it from czech is it the same in Polish? The best move (P11) won 2.3% less gammons and only 0.3% more games. WHY? Then I remembered, even if I am too good, still I am playing with a "knife in my pocket" - precube play!
Below are my thoughts at first glance - before a closer look and your comments. In my first glance I counted 6 shots from the bar against my blot on his barpoint, but the 22 is blocked - hence 5 shots, still quite a bit more than the 2 "killing returns" on my 8 had I played P16, 8.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 160 | | 9 point match | pip: 128
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a--BBBC--c--cD--AbAd-b----:0:0:1:52:0:1:0:9:3 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/11 13/11 | eq: +1.066 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 74.92% (G:38.88% B:0.66%)
25.08% (G:4.65% B:0.17%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+1.057...+1.075) - [98.8%]
Duration: 6 minutes 08 seconds |
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/16 13/8 | eq: +1.051 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 74.58% (G:41.24% B:0.58%)
25.42% (G:4.88% B:0.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+1.042...+1.060) - [1.2%]
Duration: 7 minutes 03 seconds |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 18/13 6/4 | eq: +0.979 (-0.087) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.21% (G:33.74% B:0.43%)
27.79% (G:5.05% B:0.19%) | |
|
| 4. | 3-ply | 18/11 | eq: +0.994 (-0.072) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 74.30% (G:35.02% B:0.50%)
25.70% (G:4.38% B:0.13%) | |
|
| 5. | 3-ply | 13/6 | eq: +0.986 (-0.080) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.57% (G:38.25% B:0.63%)
28.43% (G:5.30% B:0.17%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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A beautiful precube play. The 18/16 13/8 play is more compact. Wins only .3% less games, but wins 2.3% more gammons! And yet the "bolder" looking play 16/11 13/11 is the favorite! The latter gives 6 shots against only 2 (the famous 62 from the bar), but the 62 is meaningful. If he hits us after 13/11 16/11 we have a lot of return shots and he is behind the prime yet. Never mind we win 2.3% less gammons. It is important to double him in/out on our next turn. 62 is a joker for him and the 6 shots are not that kind of a joker. I guess most of them are still double-ins. |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2