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Bear off cube action (Score related)

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 14 March 2015, at 11:45 p.m.

In Response To: Bear off cube action (Score related) (Mochy)

Nearly no miss position vs a pips position. White's point of last take in a money game would be when trailing in the EPC by leader's rolls minus 3.

If all of Blue's checkers were on the ace, his EPC would be 36. He's a little worse than that here. Blue has an odd number of checkers remaining with an average pip count per checker of 2.77. Accd to the late Walter Trice, this means you need to add about 1.5 pips so the EPC should be ~37.5. So Blue has about a 5.2 rolls position and White's point of last take in a money game would be with an EPC of 39.7.

Matussek's EPC formula gives White an EPC of 44.1 - which makes it a big pass in a money game.

White's tp ats is 16%, so is it a take? I really doubt it. An EPC of 39.7 would give White about 22% chances and White is 4.4 pips worse than that. I'm quite sure each EPC pip from 39.7 to 44.1 is worth more than 1.5% per which puts White's chances below the needed 16%.

R/P.

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