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Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 31 March 2015, at 11:36 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

I was getting crushed by XG the other day when this position came along. I knew that the leader's dead 2-cube takepoint in a race was a little below the normal 25% ATS and that the trailer's minimal doubling point was a little above the normal 50%. Getting to 2a is important for the leader since an undoubled g or a doubled win will win the match. If I double, the 17 hits translate to around 16.5 wins plus the small chance of a gammon brings the total back up to 17 wins. So far, not enough to double.

What's going on if I miss the shot? I figured my tp ats was about 10% and I counted 12 numbers that force another direct shot. I hit a third of these plus maybe a late hit on the 6-point or winning the race. Definitely over 10% and Black should probably hold off ats. I think he should safety the blot and then (probably) cube me out of the game.

It looks like I win about 11% of the 19 non-hitters which brings me to 19 wins. If Black is able to bring his blot to safety or if he leaves a shot and I miss, he can then cube me out since I think my chances will be below 10%.

I figured 19/36 wins was probably enough for a small double ats. The rollout agrees.

One other interesting thing about this position is that by doubling, I'm not giving the cube to XG and much as I'm taking it away from him. If I don't double and miss the shot, XG can cash the game. If I do double and miss the shot, XG isn't good enough to redouble!

is Player 2

score: 9
pip: 49
13 point match
pip: 92
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB---A---a----cB-cce-:0:0:1:00:1:9:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 54.82% (G:1.97% B:0.04%) 55.01% (G:1.82% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 45.18% (G:0.28% B:0.00%) 44.99% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.113 +0.129
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.043 (-0.051)±0.001 (-0.044..-0.042)
Double/Take:+0.008±0.003 (+0.005..+0.011)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.992)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 59 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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