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New XG rollouts statistics shed light on Neil Robins's position

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 18 April 2015, at 4:39 p.m.

In Response To: New XG rollouts statistics shed light on Neil Robins's position (Chuck Bower)

I was hoping that someone else would know the answer to Chuck's question. Below is something from Kleinman's Visions Laughs at Counting under the heading of "two false bearoff conjectures." I changed the score from Kleinman's original suggestion of 5-2 to 6-2 in order to get the answer to come out the way Kleinman predicted. It's not quite an answer to Chuck's question, though, because this isn't a money-play position.

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 7 11 point match pip: 15 score: 6 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AAA-A----------------bc-:1:1:1:61:6:2:0:11:10
Blue to play 61

1.	Rollout1	6/Off 3/2	eq: +0.713
	Player: Opponent: 71.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 28.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.713...+0.713) - [100.0%] Duration: 0.3 second
2.	Rollout1	6/Off 2/1	eq: +0.704 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 71.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 28.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.704...+0.704) - [0.0%] Duration: 0.3 second
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++ Search interval: Gigantic

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 7 11 point match pip: 15 score: 6 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AAA-A----------------bc-:1:-1:1:61:6:2:0:11:10
Blue to play 61

1.	Rollout1	6/Off 2/1	eq: +0.4354
	Player: Opponent: 71.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 28.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0000 (+0.4354...+0.4354) - [100.0%] Duration: 1.2 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/Off 3/2	eq: +0.4352 (-0.0002)
	Player: Opponent: 71.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 28.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0000 (+0.4352...+0.4352) - [0.0%] Duration: 1.1 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++ Search interval: Gigantic

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• New XG rollouts statistics shed light on Neil Robins's position
  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 13 April 2015, at 2:14 p.m.
  • New XG rollouts statistics shed light on Neil Robins's position
    Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 13 April 2015, at 3:52 p.m.
    • New XG rollouts statistics shed light on Neil Robins's position
      Neil Robins -- Monday, 13 April 2015, at 8:12 p.m.
  • New XG rollouts statistics shed light on Neil Robins's position
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 13 April 2015, at 11:19 p.m.
    • New XG rollouts statistics shed light on Neil Robins's position
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 18 April 2015, at 4:39 p.m.