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OLM 20150502A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 3 May 2015, at 4:18 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20150502A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION (mitokid)

The apparantly decisive nature of 66 is one of the big arguments against switching to the 1pt. If the Dillies rolled 66, they would enter all three of their checkers and put us on the roof. Of course, even then, we would have some direct shots from the bar. Any 3, plus 51, would put them back in danger of losing a gammon.

If we tried 15/5 12/2, our tactics would be clear in case the Dillies entered one checker. We would hit loose, and duke it out to see who could make the 1pt first.

What about the 70% of the cases where they didn’t come in? Should we slot? Should we attempt to bear off without making the 1pt? What if we bore off a couple of checkers, and then the Dillies entered a blot on the 1pt? Would it be too late to hit loose?

Finally, although it would not be decisive in the way that 66 might be, with the 1pt open, the Dillies could roll 11, and fall into an accidental ace-point holding game. Whether they made the 1pt that way, won it in fair fight, or simply slotted it after we ripped off our spares, the long-term dangers that would represent are significant enough to warrant making a decisive play of our own. If the Dillies fail to roll their perfecta, the game will swing strongly in our favor, with gammons looming.

Mike

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