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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20150518A The Prime Factors
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: OLM 20150518A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)
Date: Tuesday, 19 May 2015, at 1:38 p.m.
Let's first consider the score (which, IMO, is where one should always start). Although I'd like to go through a full Meq calculation, and I could probably do that ethically with pencil & paper in the OLM (right?), that isn't currently part of my face-to-face tournament (with clocks) arsenal so I'm going to take serious shortcuts.
1) Dillies passing leaves us even away (although one of the worst even-aways since only a doubled backgammon takes us optimally to the win). That makes our double less powerful than $-play.
2) If Dillies turn the game around and send it to 4, our take doesn't give us much cube leverage. Our sending to 8 would effectively send to 16, putting the match result on the finish of the game whereas holding (and winning non-gammon) still results in a huge lead. Again, easier take this turn for Dillies.
Now, how does the game look? PRaTG has us leading in 3 (Position, Threats, and Gammons) and about even or slightly ahead in the other (Race). In a money game I can find 25% Market Losers to satisfy O'Hagan's Law. But as noted above, this isn't a money game.
We don't really have a bad roll. Most rolls that don't hit on our 11-point either hit on the acepoint (like 54, although I'm not 100% sure that is the correct play since it takes the last spare off the 6-point) or better, make either the 21-point, 20-point, 18-point, or 7-point.
This latter consideration is pulling me towards the double, even with the unfavorable (for doubling purposes) matchscore.
Double
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