I was doing a "play from here" with a containment position and giving new meaning to the two words "I suck" when I got the first position posted. I didn't have a clue how to approach it. However, when I looked at the variation with a 41 roll, the light went on - I hope. After either 14-13 or 15-14, rolls with seven or fewer pips play similarly. And rolls with eleven or greater pips also play similarly. We need to look for differences when opponent rolls eight, nine or ten pips. After either play, one of these blocks, one hits and one runs without hitting. I won't walk through all the details here. If anyone is interested, they should do that themselves. The largest difference between the plays comes on the roll which runs without hitting - nine pips after 14-13 and ten pips after 15-14. That checker on the five point gives a nice double shot with aces and sixes to hit when white runs with a nine. After 15-14, the ten pip running play leaves only fives to hit. This point is illustrated when we enter with a 41 and don't cover the 14 point as well. Then we need to block nines with 15-14. To find the best move, I don't see a way around looking at the details.
        
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 40 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 145
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---B-aBBB-C--AAA------cdcA:1:1:1:51:1:0:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 14/13 | eq: +0.0031 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
49.85% (G:34.84% B:0.21%) | Conf.: ±0.0025 (+0.0006...+0.0055) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 15/14 | eq: -0.0428 (-0.0458) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
52.14% (G:37.42% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ±0.0023 (-0.0451...-0.0405) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 34 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24344394
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 40 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 145
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---B-aBBB-C--AAA------cdcA:1:1:1:41:1:0:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 15/14 | eq: -0.0093 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
50.46% (G:35.69% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ±0.0025 (-0.0118...-0.0067) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 14/13 | eq: -0.0320 (-0.0228) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.60% (G:37.03% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ±0.0025 (-0.0345...-0.0295) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24344394
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross