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Roadkill special 01 - Rollout

Posted By: roadkillbooks
Date: Monday, 3 August 2015, at 4:43 a.m.

In Response To: Roadkill special 01 - Rollout (Stick)

Here is the rollout. Keene had this spot on. I think there is a lot to see from this example of the Kauder Paradox. In this example there are neither a huge amount of gammons, nor is the game gin after the hit.. yet here we are. It seems like 14 or 15 hits are necessary from the bar against a 4 point board to make it a double/beasver. Im actaully suprised this doesnt come up more as it seems a relatively normal position.

rkl





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 96
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 81
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CBBCbC------A---ababc-bbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 55.19% (G:17.50% B:0.25%) 54.74% (G:20.59% B:0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.81% (G:10.33% B:0.29%) 45.26% (G:10.53% B:0.28%)
Cubeless Equities +0.175 +0.392
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.038 (-0.015)±0.007 (-0.045..-0.030)
Double/Beaver:-0.023±0.028 (-0.050..+0.005)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.023)
Best Cube action: Double / Beaver
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:84.8%
Beaver Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 38 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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