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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20150802A The Prime Factors
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: OLM 20150802A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)
Date: Monday, 3 August 2015, at 4:45 a.m.
Not too sure about this one.
We have 10 POH numbers. Are most of them market losers? POH/dance looks like a market loser. So do most sequences involving POH/enter-one. We would have the best four-point board and 12 in the zone. What happens when they enter two? After POH, the best the Dillies could do is enter with 11 or 22. Are either of those takes?
Obviously, we are doing great on the POH sequences. The problem for us comes when we fail to POH. There are nine rolls that fail to escape a runner, including some awful ones like 52 and 55. The rolls 21 and 51 do not look so good either. Even if we can jump into the outfield, we would still be out-boarded and behind in the race.
O'Hagan's law of market losers is designed for use on initial cubes. It does not apply to redoubles. Nevertheless, if we were using it, we would be obliged to subtract the 7 bad rolls identified above from the 10 good sequences enumerated in the first paragraph. That would give us a net of something like 3 market losing sequences.
By itself, that is not overly impressive. But there many other good sequences for us that have not been counted. No matter what we roll, the Dillies might dance on the three-point board we already have. That happens 9 times in 36.
As well, our block is potent as it stands. If we can launch a runner into the outfield, the Dillies will have five rolls that force them to expose a blot: 32, 43, or 44. If they cannot jump into the outfield very soon themselves, their position will crumble. After they have entered, subsequent 3s and 4s that do not include a 5 or 6 are deadly for them.
Out-boarded as we are, I am not sure if I would break our 7pt or 8pt just to hit loose. Hitting loose with an ace looks okay.
Given that this is a recube, and also that we are still down by 25 pips, we should be conservative. On the other hand, a gammon win would cinch the match, and POH will give us our share.
One thing for sure, if I were wearing the Dillies shoes, I would not like to be doubled.
Still uncertain, I will vote to...
Roll
Mike
P.S. As always, when I write this much, it indicates I am brainstorming. If I knew what to do, I should be able to explain why quite succinctly. My apologies.
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