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Rollout: How many market losers here?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 26 August 2015, at 12:38 a.m.

In Response To: How many market losers here? (Timothy Chow)

The rollout says: enough to double for money but not ATS.





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 67
7 point match
pip: 70
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBCCABa-----B---a-bbbabd-:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.62% (G:1.76% B:0.03%) 65.78% (G:1.67% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.38% (G:1.27% B:0.04%) 34.22% (G:1.36% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities +0.304 +0.271
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.352±0.005 (+0.346..+0.357)
Double/Take:+0.271 (-0.081)±0.004 (+0.267..+0.275)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.648)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 15 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Unlimited:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 67
Unlimited Game
pip: 70
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBCCABa-----B---a-bbbabd-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.60% (G:1.73% B:0.03%) 65.89% (G:1.62% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.40% (G:1.25% B:0.04%) 34.11% (G:1.43% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.317 +0.639
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.387 (-0.054)±0.006 (+0.381..+0.392)
Double/Take:+0.441±0.009 (+0.432..+0.451)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.559)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

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